Todesfelde v Weiche Flensburg prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Todesfelde 0–4 Weiche Flensburg WEICHE FLENSBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Weiche Flensburg win~~64%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.200

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.170

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Weiche Flensburg win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Todesfelde v Weiche Flensburg
2′Much as we predicted: Weiche Flensburg was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 18–17–65
3′Much as we predicted: Weiche Flensburg was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 18–18–64
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Todesfelde 0–1 Weiche Flensburg
23′Weiche Flensburg ahead on 13′ through E. Krasniqi. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–12–81
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Weiche Flensburg win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Weiche Flensburg win: 64% at kick-off, 64% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Weiche Flensburg win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Weiche Flensburg win: 64% at kick-off, 64% now
25′Weiche Flensburg ahead on 13′ through E. Krasniqi. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–12–81
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Weiche Flensburg win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Todesfelde 0–2 Weiche Flensburg
45′B. Lamce scores for Weiche Flensburg on 32′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Weiche Flensburg win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Weiche Flensburg win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Todesfelde 0–2 Weiche Flensburg
46′SECOND HALF Todesfelde 0–2 Weiche Flensburg
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Todesfelde 0–3 Weiche Flensburg
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Todesfelde 0–4 Weiche Flensburg
FTFULL TIME Todesfelde 0–4 Weiche Flensburg
FTTodesfelde 0–4 Weiche Flensburg · Weiche Flensburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Todesfelde win19%

Draw18%

Weiche Flensburg win64%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Todesfelde

Weiche Flensburg

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	12	+22	28
15	Todesfelde	12	−17	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weiche flensburg winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

64% The market66%

Us64%

~~Market~~66%

We make Weiche Flensburg a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Todesfelde win	19%	17%	+1
Draw	18%	16%	+2
Weiche Flensburg win	64%	66%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	75%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	65%	−8
Todesfelde or draw	36%	34%	+3
Todesfelde clean sheet	8%	–	–
Weiche Flensburg clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.2%

0123450 2.4 4.4 6.2 5.4 3.7 2.11 2.2 6.9 8.2 7.1 4.8 2.72 4.5 5.7 4.9 3.2 3 2.1 2.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Todesfelde down, Weiche Flensburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.2% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Todesfelde at home: 2.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Weiche Flensburg away: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Todesfelde, 2.67 for Weiche Flensburg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOD 1–3 WEI · WEI 5–0 TOD

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord

TODESFELDE

LLLLLW2–5 · 0–2 · 0–9 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1

WEICHE FLENSBURG

WWLLWW6–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	12	+22	28
2	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	+22	25
4	Schöningen	13	0	24
5	Phönix Lübeck	11	+21	23
6	VfB Oldenburg	11	+16	22
7	Kickers Emden	12	0	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	12	−3	16
9	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	−4	13
11	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
12	HSC Hannover	12	−9	13
13	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
14	VfB Lübeck	12	−7	12
15	Todesfelde	12	−17	11
16	St. Pauli II	11	−1	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	−14	10
18	Bremer SV	11	−12	8