SV Drochtersen/Assel v Todesfelde prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

SV Drochtersen/Assel 5–1 Todesfelde SV DROCHTERSEN/ASSEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Drochtersen/Assel win~~81%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.058

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.245

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Drochtersen/Assel win at 81%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SV Drochtersen/Assel 81% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–12–8
1′KICK-OFF SV Drochtersen/Assel v Todesfelde
17′A goal for SV Drochtersen/Assel on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–6–3
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' SV Drochtersen/Assel 1–0 Todesfelde
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 81% at kick-off, 91% now
28′SV Drochtersen/Assel score on 27′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–1
28′We said SV Drochtersen/Assel at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–1
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' SV Drochtersen/Assel 2–0 Todesfelde
33′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′HALF-TIME SV Drochtersen/Assel 2–0 Todesfelde
46′SECOND HALF SV Drochtersen/Assel 2–0 Todesfelde
64′SV Drochtersen/Assel find the net on 63′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′We said SV Drochtersen/Assel at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' SV Drochtersen/Assel 3–0 Todesfelde
83′A goal for SV Drochtersen/Assel on 82′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' SV Drochtersen/Assel 4–0 Todesfelde
90′SV Drochtersen/Assel score on 89′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' SV Drochtersen/Assel 5–0 Todesfelde
FTFULL TIME SV Drochtersen/Assel 5–1 Todesfelde
FTSV Drochtersen/Assel 5–1 Todesfelde · SV Drochtersen/Assel win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Drochtersen/Assel are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Drochtersen/Assel 81%, draw 12%, Todesfelde 8%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on SV Drochtersen/Assel v TodesfeldeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SV Drochtersen/Assel win81%

Draw12%

Todesfelde win8%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundNorth · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Drochtersen/Assel

Todesfelde

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
16	Todesfelde	14	−21	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sv drochtersen/assel winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

81% The market60%

Us81%

~~Market~~60%

We make SV Drochtersen/Assel an 81% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 21 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SV Drochtersen/Assel v Todesfelde~~3.42 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 12~~3 v 16

~~The market · SV Drochtersen/Assel win~~60% · ours 81%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SV Drochtersen/Assel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Drochtersen/Assel win	81%	60%	+21
Draw	12%	21%	−9
Todesfelde win	8%	19%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	80%	60%	+20
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	38%	+25
SV Drochtersen/Assel or draw	92%	81%	+11
SV Drochtersen/Assel clean sheet	37%	–	–
Todesfelde clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 7.7%

0123450 1 4.2 4.8 2.3 2 7.1 7.0 3.6 3 7.7 7.5 3.8 4 6.4 6.2 3.1 5 4.5 4.3 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Drochtersen/Assel down, Todesfelde across0–5 goals a side shown (85.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,579 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.2% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Drochtersen/Assel at home: 4.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Todesfelde away: 1.33 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.42 goals for SV Drochtersen/Assel, 1.00 for Todesfelde. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SVD 1–1 TOD · TOD 1–0 SVD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 15 Sept

SV DROCHTERSEN/ASSEL

WWDWWL8–2 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 7–2 · 3–0 · 0–3

TODESFELDE

LLLWLD0–9 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	+14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	+21	28
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	14	−4	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	14	−8	17
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
14	SSV Jeddeloh	14	−14	13
15	Werder Bremen II	13	−5	12
16	Todesfelde	14	−21	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8