St. Pauli II v Weiche Flensburg prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

St. Pauli IIDrawWeiche Flensburg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Weiche Flensburg 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Weiche Flensburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Pauli II 23%, draw 21%, Weiche Flensburg 56%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on St. Pauli II v Weiche FlensburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

St. Pauli II win23%

Draw21%

Weiche Flensburg win56%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Pauli II

Weiche Flensburg

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weiche flensburg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market75%

Us56%

~~Market~~75%

We make Weiche Flensburg a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St. Pauli II v Weiche Flensburg~~1.40 – 2.27

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 34~~17 v 1

~~The market · Weiche Flensburg win~~75% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Weiche Flensburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Pauli II win	23%	9%	+14
Draw	21%	16%	+5
Weiche Flensburg win	56%	75%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	70%	60%	+10
Both teams to score	67%	46%	+21
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	37%	+12
St. Pauli II or draw	44%	25%	+19
St. Pauli II clean sheet	11%	–	–
Weiche Flensburg clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 3.3 5.4 6.5 4.9 2.8 1 3.3 8.7 8.9 6.6 3.8 2 2.7 5.7 6.2 4.6 2.6 3 2.7 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Pauli II down, Weiche Flensburg across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St. Pauli II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Weiche Flensburg away: 3.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for St. Pauli II, 2.27 for Weiche Flensburg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WEI 1–1 STP · STP 1–3 WEI · WEI 0–1 STP · STP 2–2 WEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 13 Sept

ST. PAULI II

WWLLLL5–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–4

WEICHE FLENSBURG

LLWWWW1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	+15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	+26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	+22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	−5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	−9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	−14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	−14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	−8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	−25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8