St. Pauli II v HSC Hannover prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

St. Pauli II 3–4 HSC Hannover ST. PAULI II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St. Pauli II win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.822

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.893

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St. Pauli II win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: St. Pauli II 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
1′KICK-OFF St. Pauli II v HSC Hannover
3′Little has changed for our model: St. Pauli II 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' St. Pauli II 1–0 HSC Hannover
44′35′ and it is 1–0: H. Sabah on the scoresheet for St. Pauli II. 1–0 · 74–18–8
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' St. Pauli II win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' St. Pauli II win: 50% at kick-off, 47% now
45′35′ and it is 1–0: H. Sabah on the scoresheet for St. Pauli II. 1–0 · 74–18–8
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' St. Pauli II win: 50% at kick-off, 47% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' St. Pauli II win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' St. Pauli II 1–1 HSC Hannover
45′HALF-TIME St. Pauli II 1–1 HSC Hannover
46′SECOND HALF St. Pauli II 1–1 HSC Hannover
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' St. Pauli II 2–1 HSC Hannover
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' St. Pauli II 2–2 HSC Hannover
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' St. Pauli II 2–3 HSC Hannover
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' St. Pauli II 3–3 HSC Hannover
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' St. Pauli II 3–4 HSC Hannover
FTFULL TIME St. Pauli II 3–4 HSC Hannover
FTSt. Pauli II 3–4 HSC Hannover · St. Pauli II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

St. Pauli II win50%

Draw23%

HSC Hannover win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

St. Pauli II

HSC Hannover

15Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	HSC Hannover	12	−9	13
16	St. Pauli II	11	−1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st. pauli ii winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make St. Pauli II a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · st. pauli ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Pauli II win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	23%	23%	−1
HSC Hannover win	28%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%	+1
Both teams to score	66%	66%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
St. Pauli II or draw	72%	75%	−3
St. Pauli II clean sheet	24%	–	–
HSC Hannover clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 4.0 3.4 1 5.7 9.6 6.5 3.2 2 6.3 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 4.2 6.0 4.3 2.1 4 2.2 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Pauli II down, HSC Hannover across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.2% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St. Pauli II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). HSC Hannover away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for St. Pauli II, 1.47 for HSC Hannover. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STP 3–2 HSC · HSC 0–2 STP

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord

ST. PAULI II

DLWWLL2–2 · 2–3 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

HSC HANNOVER

LDDLLW1–6 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	12	+22	28
2	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	+22	25
4	Schöningen	13	0	24
5	Phönix Lübeck	11	+21	23
6	VfB Oldenburg	11	+16	22
7	Kickers Emden	12	0	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	12	−3	16
9	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	−4	13
11	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
12	HSC Hannover	12	−9	13
13	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
14	VfB Lübeck	12	−7	12
15	Todesfelde	12	−17	11
16	St. Pauli II	11	−1	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	−14	10
18	Bremer SV	11	−12	8