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Model 1.2

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SSV Jeddeloh v Werder Bremen II

SSV Jeddeloh
3–2Full time
Werder Bremen II

Regionalliga - Nord · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
SSV Jeddeloh 3–2 Werder Bremen II SSV JEDDELOH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SSV Jeddeloh win42%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.514
The market’s Brier score0.560

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay28 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SSV Jeddeloh win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: SSV Jeddeloh was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SSV Jeddeloh v Werder Bremen II
  4. 8′SSV Jeddeloh score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–17–18
  5. 8′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 64%. 1–0 · 64–17–18
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' SSV Jeddeloh 1–0 Werder Bremen II
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' SSV Jeddeloh win: 42% at kick-off, 64% now
  8. 11′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–18–18
  9. 19′SSV Jeddeloh find the net on 19′. 2–0. 2–0 · 83–10–6
  10. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' SSV Jeddeloh 2–0 Werder Bremen II
  11. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' SSV Jeddeloh win: 42% at kick-off, 83% now
  12. 20′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 84%. 2–0 · 84–10–6
  13. 22′SSV Jeddeloh ahead on 18′ through K. Krasniqi. 2–0. 2–0 · 84–10–6
  14. 26′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
  15. 38′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 2–0 · 87–9–4
  16. 39′A goal for Werder Bremen II on 39′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 67–20–13
  17. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' SSV Jeddeloh 2–1 Werder Bremen II
  18. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' SSV Jeddeloh win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
  19. 42′A goal for Werder Bremen II on 37′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 68–20–12
  20. 42′SSV Jeddeloh score on 42′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 88–9–3
  21. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' SSV Jeddeloh 3–1 Werder Bremen II
  22. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' SSV Jeddeloh win: 42% at kick-off, 88% now
  23. 43′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 88–9–3
  24. 45′A red card for Werder Bremen II on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 89–8–3
  25. 45′42′: M. Brinkmann on the scoresheet for SSV Jeddeloh, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 89–8–3
  26. 45′🟥 RED CARD · 45+4' Werder Bremen II
  27. 45′HALF-TIME SSV Jeddeloh 3–1 Werder Bremen II
  28. 46′A red card for Werder Bremen II on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 89–8–3
  29. 46′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 89%. 3–1 · 89–8–3
  30. 46′SECOND HALF SSV Jeddeloh 3–1 Werder Bremen II
  31. 47′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 89–8–3
  32. 48′Werder Bremen II find the net on 48′. 3–2. 3–2 · 69–21–11
  33. 48′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 69%. 3–2 · 69–21–11
  34. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' SSV Jeddeloh 3–2 Werder Bremen II
  35. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' SSV Jeddeloh win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
  36. 49′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–1 · 90–8–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  37. 49′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 69–21–10
  38. 52′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 3–2 · 70–21–10
  39. 53′Werder Bremen II pull one back on 49′ through J. Ossadnik. 3–2. 3–2 · 70–21–9
  40. 67′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 3–2 · 75–20–5
  41. 75′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
  42. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' SSV Jeddeloh win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  43. 84′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–10–1
  44. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' SSV Jeddeloh win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  45. 91′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  46. FTFULL TIME SSV Jeddeloh 3–2 Werder Bremen II
  47. FTSSV Jeddeloh 3–2 Werder Bremen II · SSV Jeddeloh win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SSV Jeddeloh are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SSV Jeddeloh 42%, draw 22%, Werder Bremen II 36%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on SSV Jeddeloh v Werder Bremen IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SSV Jeddeloh win42%
Draw22%
Werder Bremen II win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorth · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SSV Jeddeloh

Werder Bremen II

5Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Werder Bremen II12−412
17SSV Jeddeloh13−1510

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssv jeddeloh winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:37 · locked at kick-off
42% The market39%
Us42%
Market39%

We make SSV Jeddeloh a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SSV Jeddeloh v Werder Bremen II1.99 – 1.83
Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 6 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 10 v 1217 v 14
The market · SSV Jeddeloh win39% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 13:25
Our probability · SSV Jeddeloh win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SSV Jeddeloh win42%39%+3
Draw22%24%−2
Werder Bremen II win36%36%0
Over 2.5 goals73%71%+2
Both teams to score72%72%0
Over 1.5 goals89%87%+2
Over 3.5 goals53%54%−1
SSV Jeddeloh or draw64%64%0
SSV Jeddeloh clean sheet17%––
Werder Bremen II clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%
0123450 2.9 3.6 3.7 2.3 1 4.0 8.5 7.2 4.4 2.1 2 4.4 7.8 7.0 4.3 2.0 3 2.9 5.1 4.6 2.8 4 2.6 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SSV Jeddeloh down, Werder Bremen II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.62
Over 2.57 of 8
Both scored6 of 8
Last meetingsWER 4–0 SSV · SSV 4–1 WER · WER 8–1 SSV · SSV 3–0 WER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 6 Sept

SSV JEDDELOH

LWWLLL1–4 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 2–7 · 1–2

WERDER BREMEN II

LLWWLD0–2 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weiche Flensburg14+2934
2SV Drochtersen/Assel14+2228
3Hannover 96 II13+1227
4Phönix Lübeck12+2426
5VfB Oldenburg12+2025
6Schöningen13024
7Atlas Delmenhorst13−119
8Kickers Emden13−418
9HSC Hannover13−816
10VfB Lübeck13−615
11Eimsbütteler TV13−1414
12Eintracht Norderstedt12−713
13Hamburger SV II12−813
14Werder Bremen II12−412
15Todesfelde13−2111
16St. Pauli II12−210
17SSV Jeddeloh13−1510
18Bremer SV13−178

The competition's standings before kick-off.