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SSV Jeddeloh v VfB Lübeck

SSV Jeddeloh

1–2Full time

VfB Lübeck

Regionalliga - Nord · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

SSV Jeddeloh 1–2 VfB Lübeck SSV JEDDELOH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SSV Jeddeloh win~~43%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.676

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SSV Jeddeloh win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF SSV Jeddeloh v VfB Lübeck
2′Much as we predicted: SSV Jeddeloh was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
4′Much as we predicted: SSV Jeddeloh was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' SSV Jeddeloh 1–0 VfB Lübeck
22′20′ and it is 1–0: T. Bothe on the scoresheet for SSV Jeddeloh. 1–0 · 67–19–14
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
24′We published SSV Jeddeloh at 43%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–19–14
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
28′20′ and it is 1–0: T. Bothe on the scoresheet for SSV Jeddeloh. 1–0 · 68–19–13
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 68–20–12
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' SSV Jeddeloh win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' SSV Jeddeloh 1–1 VfB Lübeck
45′HALF-TIME SSV Jeddeloh 1–1 VfB Lübeck
46′SECOND HALF SSV Jeddeloh 1–1 VfB Lübeck
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' SSV Jeddeloh 1–2 VfB Lübeck
FTFULL TIME SSV Jeddeloh 1–2 VfB Lübeck
FTSSV Jeddeloh 1–2 VfB Lübeck · SSV Jeddeloh win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

SSV Jeddeloh win43%

Draw23%

VfB Lübeck win34%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SSV Jeddeloh

VfB Lübeck

9Days since last match10

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	VfB Lübeck	12	−7	12
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	−14	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssv jeddeloh winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market51%

Us43%

~~Market~~51%

We make SSV Jeddeloh a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ssv jeddeloh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SSV Jeddeloh win	43%	51%	−9
Draw	23%	24%	0
VfB Lübeck win	34%	25%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	67%	67%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
SSV Jeddeloh or draw	66%	75%	−9
SSV Jeddeloh clean sheet	21%	–	–
VfB Lübeck clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 4.7 4.2 2.3 1 5.4 10.0 7.4 4.0 2 5.4 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 3.3 5.1 4.1 2.2 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SSV Jeddeloh down, VfB Lübeck across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,570 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 112 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SSV Jeddeloh at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). VfB Lübeck away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for SSV Jeddeloh, 1.61 for VfB Lübeck. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SSV 3–2 VFB · VFB 1–1 SSV · VFB 2–2 SSV · SSV 3–2 VFB

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord

SSV JEDDELOH

LLWWLL1–3 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 2–7

VFB LÜBECK

DDDWWD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	13	+26	31
2	SV Drochtersen/Assel	13	+25	28
3	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
4	Phönix Lübeck	12	+24	26
5	VfB Oldenburg	12	+20	25
6	Schöningen	13	0	24
7	Kickers Emden	13	−4	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	12	−3	16
9	HSC Hannover	13	−8	16
10	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
11	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
12	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
13	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
14	VfB Lübeck	12	−7	12
15	Todesfelde	13	−21	11
16	St. Pauli II	12	−2	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	−14	10
18	Bremer SV	12	−15	8