Schöningen v VfB Lübeck prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SchöningenDrawVfB Lübeck

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · VfB Lübeck 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfB Lübeck are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schöningen 34%, draw 24%, VfB Lübeck 42%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Schöningen v VfB LübeckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Schöningen win34%

Draw24%

VfB Lübeck win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schöningen

VfB Lübeck

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfb lübeck winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make VfB Lübeck a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schöningen v VfB Lübeck~~1.59 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 24 v 18~~6 v 9

~~The market · VfB Lübeck win~~34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfB Lübeck win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schöningen win	34%	41%	−7
Draw	24%	25%	−1
VfB Lübeck win	42%	34%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Both teams to score	66%	66%	0
Over 1.5 goals	85%	82%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Schöningen or draw	58%	66%	−8
Schöningen clean sheet	17%	–	–
VfB Lübeck clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.3 5.6 5.5 3.3 1 4.9 10.3 8.5 5.0 2.3 2 4.4 7.6 6.6 4.0 3 2.3 4.0 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schöningen down, VfB Lübeck across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Schöningen at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). VfB Lübeck away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Schöningen, 1.78 for VfB Lübeck. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SCH 0–4 VFB · VFB 4–1 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 16 Sept

SCHÖNINGEN

WLDLLL2–1 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–4

VFB LÜBECK

DWWDWW2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	+15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	+26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	+22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	−5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	−9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	−14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	−14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	−8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	−25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8