Schöningen v Phönix Lübeck prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SchöningenDrawPhönix Lübeck

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Phönix Lübeck 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phönix Lübeck are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schöningen 20%, draw 21%, Phönix Lübeck 60%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Schöningen v Phönix LübeckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Schöningen win20%

Draw21%

Phönix Lübeck win60%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundNorth · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schöningen

Phönix Lübeck

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phönix lübeck winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Phönix Lübeck a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schöningen v Phönix Lübeck~~1.25 – 2.28

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 27~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schöningen win	20%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Phönix Lübeck win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Schöningen or draw	40%	–	–
Schöningen clean sheet	11%	–	–
Phönix Lübeck clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 3.7 6.3 7.6 5.7 3.3 1 3.2 8.8 9.2 7.0 4.0 2 2.4 5.2 5.8 4.3 2.5 3 2.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schöningen down, Phönix Lübeck across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Schöningen at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Phönix Lübeck away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Schöningen, 2.28 for Phönix Lübeck. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SCH 3–5 PHO · PHO 2–0 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 12 Sept

SCHÖNINGEN

WLDLLL2–1 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–4

PHÖNIX LÜBECK

WWWLWD3–1 · 9–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	+15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	+26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	+22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	−5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	−9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	−14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	−14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	−8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	−25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8