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Schöningen v Hamburger SV II

Schöningen
1–3Full time
Hamburger SV II

Regionalliga - Nord · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
Schöningen 1–3 Hamburger SV II HAMBURGER SV II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hamburger SV II win38%
The market said21%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.581
The market’s Brier score1.001

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hamburger SV II win at 38%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Schöningen was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–22–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Schöningen v Hamburger SV II
  4. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Schöningen 0–1 Hamburger SV II
  5. 41′M. Brocker scores for Hamburger SV II on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
  6. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Hamburger SV II win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
  7. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Hamburger SV II win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Schöningen win 12%)
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Schöningen 0–1 Hamburger SV II
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Schöningen 0–1 Hamburger SV II
  10. 47′We said Schöningen at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
  11. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Schöningen 0–2 Hamburger SV II
  12. 65′61′ and it is 0–2: F. Barkowsky on the scoresheet for Hamburger SV II. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  13. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Hamburger SV II win: 38% at kick-off, 94% now
  14. 70′⚽ GOAL · 68' Schöningen 0–3 Hamburger SV II · K. Holscher Machado
  15. 80′⚽ GOAL · 38' Schöningen 0–3 Hamburger SV II · M. Brocker
  16. 80′⚽ GOAL · 61' Schöningen 0–3 Hamburger SV II · F. Barkowsky
  17. 80′⚽ GOAL · 68' Schöningen 0–3 Hamburger SV II · K. Holscher Machado
  18. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Schöningen 1–3 Hamburger SV II
  19. 86′L. Horn scores for Schöningen on 84′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  20. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Hamburger SV II win: 38% at kick-off, 100% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Schöningen 1–3 Hamburger SV II
  22. FTSchöningen 1–3 Hamburger SV II · Hamburger SV II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Schöningen win38%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV II win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hamburger sv ii winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
38% The market21%
Us38%
Market21%

We make Hamburger SV II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 21%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published
10%20%30%40% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 03:56
Our probability · hamburger sv ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 13% to 21% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Schöningen win38%57%−19
Draw23%22%+2
Hamburger SV II win38%21%+17
Over 2.5 goals67%68%−1
Both teams to score68%66%+2
Over 1.5 goals86%86%0
Over 3.5 goals46%49%−3
Schöningen or draw62%79%−17
Schöningen clean sheet18%––
Hamburger SV II clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 3.9 4.9 4.7 2.8 1 4.9 9.8 7.9 4.6 2.1 2 4.7 7.9 6.8 4.0 3 2.7 4.6 4.0 2.3 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Schöningen down, Hamburger SV II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsHAM 2–2 SCH · SCH 2–1 HAM

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord

SCHÖNINGEN

WWWLDL1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2

HAMBURGER SV II

LWLLWL0–2 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weiche Flensburg12+2228
2SV Drochtersen/Assel12+2225
3Hannover 96 II12+1024
4Schöningen12+224
5Phönix Lübeck11+2123
6VfB Oldenburg11+1622
7Kickers Emden12018
8Atlas Delmenhorst12−316
9Eimsbütteler TV12−1214
10Eintracht Norderstedt11−413
11HSC Hannover12−913
12Werder Bremen II12−412
13VfB Lübeck12−712
14Todesfelde12−1711
15St. Pauli II11−110
16Hamburger SV II11−1010
17SSV Jeddeloh12−1410
18Bremer SV11−128

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.