Phönix Lübeck v Eintracht Norderstedt prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Phönix Lübeck 4–1 Eintracht Norderstedt PHÖNIX LÜBECK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Phönix Lübeck win~~69%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.145

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.175

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Phönix Lübeck win at 69%.
1′KICK-OFF Phönix Lübeck v Eintracht Norderstedt
2′Little has changed for our model: Phönix Lübeck 69% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–14
3′Little has changed for our model: Phönix Lübeck 69% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–14
22′Phönix Lübeck find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Phönix Lübeck 1–0 Eintracht Norderstedt
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Phönix Lübeck win: 69% at kick-off, 85% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Phönix Lübeck win: 69% at kick-off, 70% now
23′Phönix Lübeck find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Phönix Lübeck win: 69% at kick-off, 85% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Phönix Lübeck win: 69% at kick-off, 70% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Phönix Lübeck 1–1 Eintracht Norderstedt
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Phönix Lübeck 2–1 Eintracht Norderstedt
43′43′ and it is 2–1: J. Stover on the scoresheet for Phönix Lübeck. 2–1 · 84–12–4
45′43′ and it is 2–1: J. Stover on the scoresheet for Phönix Lübeck. 2–1 · 84–12–4
45′HALF-TIME Phönix Lübeck 2–1 Eintracht Norderstedt
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Phönix Lübeck win: 69% at kick-off, 84% now
46′SECOND HALF Phönix Lübeck 2–1 Eintracht Norderstedt
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Phönix Lübeck 3–1 Eintracht Norderstedt
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Phönix Lübeck 4–1 Eintracht Norderstedt
FTFULL TIME Phönix Lübeck 4–1 Eintracht Norderstedt
FTPhönix Lübeck 4–1 Eintracht Norderstedt · Phönix Lübeck win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Phönix Lübeck win69%

Draw17%

Eintracht Norderstedt win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Phönix Lübeck

Eintracht Norderstedt

8Days since last match15

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Phönix Lübeck	11	+21	23
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	−4	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phönix lübeck winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

69% The market66%

Us69%

~~Market~~66%

We make Phönix Lübeck a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · phönix lübeck win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 66% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phönix Lübeck win	69%	66%	+3
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Eintracht Norderstedt win	14%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	72%	69%	+4
Both teams to score	62%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	89%	85%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	52%	49%	+3
Phönix Lübeck or draw	86%	85%	+1
Phönix Lübeck clean sheet	33%	–	–
Eintracht Norderstedt clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.9 2.3 1 5.7 7.3 3.9 2 7.9 8.7 4.9 3 6.9 7.6 4.3 4 4.7 5.1 2.9 5 2.6 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Phönix Lübeck down, Eintracht Norderstedt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.2% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Phönix Lübeck at home: 3.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Eintracht Norderstedt away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.68 goals for Phönix Lübeck, 1.13 for Eintracht Norderstedt. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EIN 1–1 PHO · PHO 0–2 EIN · EIN 3–2 PHO · PHO 0–1 EIN

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord

PHÖNIX LÜBECK

WWWWWL3–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 9–0 · 2–1 · 2–3

EINTRACHT NORDERSTEDT

WDLDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 2–5 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	12	+22	28
2	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	+22	25
4	Schöningen	13	0	24
5	Phönix Lübeck	11	+21	23
6	VfB Oldenburg	11	+16	22
7	Kickers Emden	12	0	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	12	−3	16
9	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	−4	13
11	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
12	HSC Hannover	12	−9	13
13	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
14	VfB Lübeck	12	−7	12
15	Todesfelde	12	−17	11
16	St. Pauli II	11	−1	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	−14	10
18	Bremer SV	11	−12	8