Phönix Lübeck v Atlas Delmenhorst prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Phönix LübeckDrawAtlas Delmenhorst

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Phönix Lübeck 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phönix Lübeck are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Phönix Lübeck 62%, draw 21%, Atlas Delmenhorst 17%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Phönix Lübeck v Atlas DelmenhorstBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Phönix Lübeck win62%

Draw21%

Atlas Delmenhorst win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Phönix Lübeck

Atlas Delmenhorst

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phönix lübeck winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Phönix Lübeck a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Phönix Lübeck v Atlas Delmenhorst~~2.16 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 19~~5 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phönix Lübeck win	62%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Atlas Delmenhorst win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Phönix Lübeck or draw	83%	–	–
Phönix Lübeck clean sheet	37%	–	–
Atlas Delmenhorst clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 5.1 3.8 2.3 1 8.7 9.6 4.6 2 9.7 9.5 4.8 3 7.0 6.7 3.4 4 3.9 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Phönix Lübeck down, Atlas Delmenhorst across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,579 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.2% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Phönix Lübeck at home: 4.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atlas Delmenhorst away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Phönix Lübeck, 1.01 for Atlas Delmenhorst. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 PHO · PHO 0–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept

PHÖNIX LÜBECK

WWWLWD3–1 · 9–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 2–2

ATLAS DELMENHORST

LLDWDW0–3 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	+14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	+21	28
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	−5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	14	−8	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
13	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
14	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
15	SSV Jeddeloh	14	−14	13
16	Todesfelde	14	−21	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8