Kickers Emden v Phönix Lübeck prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Kickers Emden 2–2 Phönix Lübeck PHÖNIX LÜBECK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Phönix Lübeck win~~51%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.948

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.950

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Phönix Lübeck win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Phönix Lübeck was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 28–22–51
1′KICK-OFF Kickers Emden v Phönix Lübeck
16′A goal for Phönix Lübeck on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–73
16′We published Phönix Lübeck at 51%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 12–16–73
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Kickers Emden 0–1 Phönix Lübeck
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Phönix Lübeck win: 51% at kick-off, 73% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 10–17–73
45′HALF-TIME Kickers Emden 0–1 Phönix Lübeck
47′SECOND HALF Kickers Emden 0–1 Phönix Lübeck
49′We published Phönix Lübeck at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
53′Phönix Lübeck score on 53′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–93
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kickers Emden 0–2 Phönix Lübeck
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Phönix Lübeck win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
54′We published Phönix Lübeck at 51%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
55′Kickers Emden find the net on 55′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–18–76
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Kickers Emden 1–2 Phönix Lübeck
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Phönix Lübeck win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
68′We published Phönix Lübeck at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 4–17–80
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Phönix Lübeck win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
77′We published Phönix Lübeck at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Phönix Lübeck win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
89′We published Phönix Lübeck at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
94′A goal for Kickers Emden on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–2
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Kickers Emden 2–2 Phönix Lübeck
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Phönix Lübeck win: 51% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Phönix Lübeck win 2%)
95′We said Phönix Lübeck at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–96–2
FTFULL TIME Kickers Emden 2–2 Phönix Lübeck
FTKickers Emden 2–2 Phönix Lübeck · Phönix Lübeck win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phönix Lübeck are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kickers Emden 28%, draw 22%, Phönix Lübeck 51%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Kickers Emden v Phönix LübeckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kickers Emden win28%

Draw22%

Phönix Lübeck win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundNorth · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kickers Emden

Phönix Lübeck

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Phönix Lübeck	12	+24	26
8	Kickers Emden	13	−4	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phönix lübeck winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

51% The market55%

Us51%

~~Market~~55%

We make Phönix Lübeck a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kickers Emden v Phönix Lübeck~~1.54 – 2.14

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 26~~8 v 4

~~The market · Phönix Lübeck win~~55% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Phönix Lübeck win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kickers Emden win	28%	23%	+5
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Phönix Lübeck win	51%	55%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Kickers Emden or draw	49%	45%	+4
Kickers Emden clean sheet	12%	–	–
Phönix Lübeck clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.3 5.0 5.8 4.1 2.2 1 3.5 8.8 8.6 6.1 3.3 2 3.1 6.3 6.6 4.6 2.5 3 3.3 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kickers Emden down, Phönix Lübeck across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,573 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kickers Emden at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Phönix Lübeck away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Kickers Emden, 2.14 for Phönix Lübeck. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PHO 2–0 KIC · KIC 1–3 PHO · KIC 0–3 PHO · PHO 1–1 KIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 6 Sept

KICKERS EMDEN

WLWWLL4–1 · 2–8 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–4

PHÖNIX LÜBECK

WWWWLW2–0 · 3–1 · 9–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
3	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
4	Phönix Lübeck	12	+24	26
5	VfB Oldenburg	12	+20	25
6	Schöningen	13	0	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	13	−4	18
9	HSC Hannover	13	−8	16
10	VfB Lübeck	13	−6	15
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
14	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
15	Todesfelde	13	−21	11
16	St. Pauli II	12	−2	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	13	−15	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8