HSC Hannover v Todesfelde prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

HSC Hannover 1–1 Todesfelde HSC HANNOVER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HSC Hannover win~~52%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.974

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.958

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HSC Hannover win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: HSC Hannover 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–28
1′KICK-OFF HSC Hannover v Todesfelde
3′A goal for Todesfelde on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 32–20–49
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' HSC Hannover 0–1 Todesfelde
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' HSC Hannover win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Todesfelde win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was HSC Hannover win 32%)
4′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–20–49
12′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–21–50
29′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 0–1 · 24–23–53
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' HSC Hannover win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
40′HSC Hannover score on 39′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 44–29–27
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' HSC Hannover 1–1 Todesfelde
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' HSC Hannover win: 52% at kick-off, 44% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' HSC Hannover win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Todesfelde win 27%)
45′HALF-TIME HSC Hannover 1–1 Todesfelde
46′SECOND HALF HSC Hannover 1–1 Todesfelde
52′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–34–25
55′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–36–25
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was HSC Hannover win 36%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' HSC Hannover win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' HSC Hannover win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
80′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
84′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–78–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' HSC Hannover win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
88′We said HSC Hannover at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
FTFULL TIME HSC Hannover 1–1 Todesfelde
FTHSC Hannover 1–1 Todesfelde · HSC Hannover win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HSC Hannover are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HSC Hannover 52%, draw 21%, Todesfelde 28%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on HSC Hannover v TodesfeldeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

HSC Hannover win52%

Draw21%

Todesfelde win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HSC Hannover

Todesfelde

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	HSC Hannover	13	−8	16
16	Todesfelde	13	−21	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hsc hannover winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market51%

Us52%

~~Market~~51%

We make HSC Hannover a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HSC Hannover v Todesfelde~~2.30 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~10 v 16

~~The market · HSC Hannover win~~51% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HSC Hannover win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HSC Hannover win	52%	51%	+1
Draw	21%	21%	0
Todesfelde win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Both teams to score	72%	69%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	50%	+5
HSC Hannover or draw	72%	72%	0
HSC Hannover clean sheet	20%	–	–
Todesfelde clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.6 2.9 2.7 1 4.1 7.8 6.0 3.3 2 5.1 8.1 6.6 3.7 3 3.9 6.2 5.0 2.8 4 2.3 3.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HSC Hannover down, Todesfelde across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,577 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

HSC Hannover at home: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Todesfelde away: 1.17 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for HSC Hannover, 1.65 for Todesfelde. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 12 Sept

HSC HANNOVER

DDLLWW1–1 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–3

TODESFELDE

LLLLWL0–2 · 0–9 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	+14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
4	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
5	VfB Oldenburg	12	+20	25
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	14	−4	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	13	−8	16
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
14	SSV Jeddeloh	14	−14	13
15	Werder Bremen II	13	−5	12
16	Todesfelde	13	−21	11
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8