Bremer SV v SV Drochtersen/Assel prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Bremer SV 0–3 SV Drochtersen/Assel SV DROCHTERSEN/ASSEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Drochtersen/Assel win~~55%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.300

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.127

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Drochtersen/Assel win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Bremer SV v SV Drochtersen/Assel
2′Much as we predicted: SV Drochtersen/Assel was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 23–22–56
7′Much as we predicted: SV Drochtersen/Assel was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 23–22–55
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Bremer SV 0–1 SV Drochtersen/Assel
39′SV Drochtersen/Assel ahead on 35′ through T. Sanne. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–78
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
41′SV Drochtersen/Assel ahead on 35′ through T. Sanne. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–78
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Bremer SV 0–1 SV Drochtersen/Assel
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
46′SECOND HALF Bremer SV 0–1 SV Drochtersen/Assel
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Bremer SV 0–2 SV Drochtersen/Assel
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Bremer SV 0–3 SV Drochtersen/Assel
FTFULL TIME Bremer SV 0–3 SV Drochtersen/Assel
FTBremer SV 0–3 SV Drochtersen/Assel · SV Drochtersen/Assel win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bremer SV win22%

Draw22%

SV Drochtersen/Assel win55%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bremer SV

SV Drochtersen/Assel

14Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	+22	25
18	Bremer SV	11	−12	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sv drochtersen/assel winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

55% The market71%

Us55%

~~Market~~71%

We make SV Drochtersen/Assel a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sv drochtersen/assel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 77% to 71% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bremer SV win	22%	12%	+11
Draw	22%	17%	+5
SV Drochtersen/Assel win	55%	71%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	57%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	86%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Bremer SV or draw	45%	29%	+16
Bremer SV clean sheet	14%	–	–
SV Drochtersen/Assel clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.7 7.3 7.9 5.4 2.8 1 4.2 10.0 9.4 6.4 3.3 2 3.0 5.8 5.7 3.9 2.0 3 2.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bremer SV down, SV Drochtersen/Assel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.2% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bremer SV at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). SV Drochtersen/Assel away: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Bremer SV, 2.04 for SV Drochtersen/Assel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRE 2–3 SVD · SVD 2–1 BRE · BRE 3–2 SVD · SVD 2–0 BRE

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord

BREMER SV

DLWLLL2–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–3

SV DROCHTERSEN/ASSEL

WWWWDW7–1 · 3–0 · 8–2 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 7–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	12	+22	28
2	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	+22	25
4	Schöningen	13	0	24
5	Phönix Lübeck	11	+21	23
6	VfB Oldenburg	11	+16	22
7	Kickers Emden	12	0	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	12	−3	16
9	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	−4	13
11	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
12	HSC Hannover	12	−9	13
13	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
14	VfB Lübeck	12	−7	12
15	Todesfelde	12	−17	11
16	St. Pauli II	11	−1	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	−14	10
18	Bremer SV	11	−12	8