Bremer SV v Hamburger SV II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bremer SVDrawHamburger SV II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bremer SV 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bremer SV just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bremer SV 39%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV II 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Bremer SV v Hamburger SV IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bremer SV win39%

Draw26%

Hamburger SV II win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bremer SV

Hamburger SV II

9Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bremer sv winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market30%

Us39%

~~Market~~30%

We make Bremer SV a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bremer SV v Hamburger SV II~~1.48 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~18 v 15

~~The market · Bremer SV win~~30% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bremer SV win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bremer SV win	39%	30%	+9
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Hamburger SV II win	35%	45%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Bremer SV or draw	65%	55%	+10
Bremer SV clean sheet	25%	–	–
Hamburger SV II clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.6 7.1 5.5 2.6 1 7.5 12.1 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.4 5.9 2.8 3 3.0 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bremer SV down, Hamburger SV II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bremer SV at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hamburger SV II away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Bremer SV, 1.41 for Hamburger SV II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HAM 1–1 BRE · BRE 3–0 HAM · HAM 5–3 BRE · BRE 3–0 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept

BREMER SV

WLLLLL2–0 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2

HAMBURGER SV II

LLWLWL0–4 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	+15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	+26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	+22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	−5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	−9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	−14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	−14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	−8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	−25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8