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Wacker Burghausen v Greuther Fürth II

Wacker Burghausen
3–3Full time
Greuther Fürth II

Regionalliga - Bayern · SAT 10 OCT · Wacker Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
Wacker Burghausen 3–3 Greuther Fürth II WACKER BURGHAUSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wacker Burghausen win49%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.925
The market’s Brier score0.869

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wacker Burghausen win at 49%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Wacker Burghausen was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–29
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Wacker Burghausen v Greuther Fürth II
  4. 22′21′ and it is 0–1: Greuther Fürth II have scored. 0–1 · 22–23–55
  5. 22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Wacker Burghausen 0–1 Greuther Fürth II
  6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Wacker Burghausen win: 49% at kick-off, 22% now
  7. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Greuther Fürth II win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Wacker Burghausen win 22%)
  8. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Wacker Burghausen 1–1 Greuther Fürth II
  9. 42′Wacker Burghausen ahead on 36′ through N. S. Agbaje. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–33–26
  10. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Wacker Burghausen win: 49% at kick-off, 41% now
  11. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Wacker Burghausen win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Greuther Fürth II win 26%)
  12. 45′N. S. Agbaje scores for Wacker Burghausen on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–19–7
  13. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Wacker Burghausen 2–1 Greuther Fürth II
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Wacker Burghausen 2–1 Greuther Fürth II
  15. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Wacker Burghausen win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
  16. 49′SECOND HALF Wacker Burghausen 2–1 Greuther Fürth II
  17. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Wacker Burghausen 3–1 Greuther Fürth II
  18. 66′50′ and it is 3–1: Wacker Burghausen have scored. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  19. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Wacker Burghausen win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
  20. 84′⚽ GOAL · 21' Wacker Burghausen 3–1 Greuther Fürth II · D. Gunes
  21. 84′⚽ GOAL · 36' Wacker Burghausen 3–1 Greuther Fürth II · N. S. Agbaje
  22. 84′⚽ GOAL · 45' Wacker Burghausen 3–1 Greuther Fürth II · N. S. Agbaje
  23. 84′⚽ GOAL · 50' Wacker Burghausen 3–1 Greuther Fürth II
  24. 87′We published Wacker Burghausen at 49%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  25. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Wacker Burghausen win: 49% at kick-off, 100% now
  26. 90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Wacker Burghausen 3–2 Greuther Fürth II
  27. 90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Wacker Burghausen 3–3 Greuther Fürth II
  28. FTFULL TIME Wacker Burghausen 3–3 Greuther Fürth II
  29. FTWacker Burghausen 3–3 Greuther Fürth II · Wacker Burghausen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wacker Burghausen win49%
Draw22%
Greuther Fürth II win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Wacker Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wacker burghausen winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
49% The market47%
Us49%
Market47%

We make Wacker Burghausen a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 03:56
Our probability · wacker burghausen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wacker Burghausen win49%47%+2
Draw22%25%−2
Greuther Fürth II win29%29%0
Over 2.5 goals64%66%−2
Both teams to score63%67%−3
Over 1.5 goals84%84%0
Over 3.5 goals42%46%−4
Wacker Burghausen or draw71%71%0
Wacker Burghausen clean sheet25%––
Greuther Fürth II clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 3.9 5.3 3.7 1 7.1 9.8 6.8 3.2 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.1 5.7 4.0 4 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wacker Burghausen down, Greuther Fürth II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsWAC 1–3 GRE · GRE 1–1 WAC · GRE 3–1 WAC · WAC 2–4 GRE

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

WACKER BURGHAUSEN

WLDWWL4–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 5–2 · 3–1 · 0–1

GREUTHER FÜRTH II

LWDLWD2–5 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buchbach12+1427
2Memmingen12+724
3SpVgg Unterhaching12+521
4Eichstätt12021
5TSV 1860 München11+1120
6Illertissen11+518
7Wacker Burghausen12+717
8Bayreuth12+416
9Bayern München II12+216
10Eltersdorf12+116
11Vilzing11016
12Augsburg II12−815
13Nürnberg II11+413
14FC Schweinfurt 0512−813
15Schwaben Augsburg12−912
16Greuther Fürth II11−311
17Ansbach11−1510
18Aubstadt11−68
19Landsberg11−117

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.