Vilzing v SpVgg Unterhaching prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Vilzing 0–0 SpVgg Unterhaching SPVGG UNTERHACHING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SpVgg Unterhaching win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.867

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SpVgg Unterhaching win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SpVgg Unterhaching 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
1′KICK-OFF Vilzing v SpVgg Unterhaching
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Vilzing 0–0 SpVgg Unterhaching
46′SECOND HALF Vilzing 0–0 SpVgg Unterhaching
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was SpVgg Unterhaching win 36%)
50′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 23–41–35
53′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 23–43–34
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–45–33
63′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
70′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–59–24
76′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
80′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–75–14
84′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
91′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Vilzing 0–0 SpVgg Unterhaching
FTVilzing 0–0 SpVgg Unterhaching · SpVgg Unterhaching win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SpVgg Unterhaching are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vilzing 28%, draw 25%, SpVgg Unterhaching 47%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Vilzing v SpVgg UnterhachingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vilzing win28%

Draw25%

SpVgg Unterhaching win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vilzing

SpVgg Unterhaching

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	13	+9	24
7	Vilzing	13	+1	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spvgg unterhaching winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:41 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make SpVgg Unterhaching a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vilzing v SpVgg Unterhaching~~1.16 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 24~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SpVgg Unterhaching win

Published at 46%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vilzing win	28%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
SpVgg Unterhaching win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Vilzing or draw	53%	–	–
Vilzing clean sheet	21%	–	–
SpVgg Unterhaching clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 10.2 8.1 4.4 1 7.4 11.6 9.1 4.9 2 4.3 6.7 5.3 2.8 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vilzing down, SpVgg Unterhaching across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,807 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vilzing at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SpVgg Unterhaching away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Vilzing, 1.60 for SpVgg Unterhaching. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPV 5–0 VIL · VIL 1–3 SPV · VIL 0–2 SPV · SPV 5–2 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 12 Sept

VILZING

DDDLDW0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–2

SPVGG UNTERHACHING

WDDDDW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	14	+9	30
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
3	TSV 1860 München	13	+12	24
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	13	+9	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Eichstätt	14	−2	21
7	Vilzing	13	+1	20
8	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
9	Bayreuth	14	+6	19
10	Augsburg II	13	−5	18
11	Eltersdorf	13	+1	17
12	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
13	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	13	−8	14
15	Greuther Fürth II	13	−4	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	13	−16	11
18	Aubstadt	13	−6	10
19	Landsberg	13	−15	8