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Vilzing v Buchbach

Vilzing

1–1Full time

Buchbach

Regionalliga - Bayern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Vilzing 1–1 Buchbach VILZING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vilzing win~~44%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.901

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vilzing win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Vilzing v Buchbach
2′Much as we predicted: Vilzing was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–33
45′HALF-TIME Vilzing 0–0 Buchbach
47′SECOND HALF Vilzing 0–0 Buchbach
65′63′ and it is 1–0: M. Meyer on the scoresheet for Vilzing. 1–0 · 77–19–4
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Vilzing 1–0 Buchbach
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Vilzing win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Vilzing 1–1 Buchbach
81′⚽ GOAL · 63' Vilzing 1–1 Buchbach · M. Meyer
81′⚽ GOAL · 76' Vilzing 1–1 Buchbach · T. Heiland
87′Buchbach ahead on 76′ through T. Heiland. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–90–5
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Vilzing win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Vilzing win 5%)
FTFULL TIME Vilzing 1–1 Buchbach
FTVilzing 1–1 Buchbach · Vilzing win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vilzing win44%

Draw23%

Buchbach win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vilzing winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market33%

Us44%

~~Market~~33%

We make Vilzing a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vilzing win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vilzing win	44%	33%	+11
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Buchbach win	33%	43%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Both teams to score	64%	68%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Vilzing or draw	67%	57%	+10
Vilzing clean sheet	23%	–	–
Buchbach clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 5.7 4.3 2.2 1 6.8 10.0 7.4 3.7 2 6.0 8.7 6.5 3.3 3 3.6 5.2 3.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vilzing down, Buchbach across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,791 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.12 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vilzing at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Buchbach away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Vilzing, 1.50 for Buchbach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 3–0 BUC · BUC 1–4 VIL · VIL 3–1 BUC · BUC 1–1 VIL

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

VILZING

WDDDDL5–4 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–3

BUCHBACH

WWWWDL3–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	12	+14	27
2	Memmingen	12	+7	24
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
4	Eichstätt	12	0	21
5	TSV 1860 München	11	+11	20
6	Illertissen	11	+5	18
7	Wacker Burghausen	12	+7	17
8	Bayreuth	12	+4	16
9	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
10	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
11	Vilzing	11	0	16
12	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
13	Nürnberg II	11	+4	13
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Schwaben Augsburg	12	−9	12
16	Greuther Fürth II	11	−3	11
17	Ansbach	11	−15	10
18	Aubstadt	11	−6	8
19	Landsberg	11	−11	7