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TSV 1860 München v Bayreuth

TSV 1860 München

2–1Full time

Bayreuth

Regionalliga - Bayern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

TSV 1860 München 2–1 Bayreuth TSV 1860 MÜNCHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TSV 1860 München win~~51%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.366

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said TSV 1860 München win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: TSV 1860 München was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
1′KICK-OFF TSV 1860 München v Bayreuth
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' TSV 1860 München 1–0 Bayreuth
26′24′ and it is 1–0: M. Eberwein on the scoresheet for TSV 1860 München. 1–0 · 75–17–9
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' TSV 1860 München win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
27′We published TSV 1860 München at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′HALF-TIME TSV 1860 München 1–0 Bayreuth
46′SECOND HALF TSV 1860 München 1–0 Bayreuth
61′We published TSV 1860 München at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' TSV 1860 München win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' TSV 1860 München 1–1 Bayreuth
71′Bayreuth find the net on 70′. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–58–16
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' TSV 1860 München win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was TSV 1860 München win 26%)
72′We said TSV 1860 München at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–59–16
73′Bayreuth ahead on 69′ through P. Scheder. 1–1. 1–1 · 24–61–15
74′We said TSV 1860 München at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–62–15
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' TSV 1860 München win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
78′We said TSV 1860 München at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
82′We said TSV 1860 München at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–78–9
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' TSV 1860 München 2–1 Bayreuth
83′A goal for TSV 1860 München on 82′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' TSV 1860 München win: 51% at kick-off, 92% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' TSV 1860 München win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
84′We published TSV 1860 München at 51%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
86′E. Uhlmann scores for TSV 1860 München on 81′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
88′We published TSV 1860 München at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME TSV 1860 München 2–1 Bayreuth
FTTSV 1860 München 2–1 Bayreuth · TSV 1860 München win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

TSV 1860 München win51%

Draw23%

Bayreuth win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

TSV 1860 München

Bayreuth

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	TSV 1860 München	12	+11	21
6	Bayreuth	13	+7	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsv 1860 münchen winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

51% The market60%

Us51%

~~Market~~60%

We make TSV 1860 München a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tsv 1860 münchen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TSV 1860 München win	51%	60%	−10
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Bayreuth win	26%	19%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	58%	65%	−7
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
TSV 1860 München or draw	74%	81%	−7
TSV 1860 München clean sheet	29%	–	–
Bayreuth clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.0 6.0 3.7 1 8.6 10.5 6.4 2.7 2 7.7 9.3 5.7 2.4 3 4.7 5.6 3.5 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TSV 1860 München down, Bayreuth across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,798 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

TSV 1860 München at home: 2.40 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Bayreuth away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for TSV 1860 München, 1.24 for Bayreuth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Regionalliga - Bayern since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

TSV 1860 MÜNCHEN

WDWLWD3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1

BAYREUTH

LWLWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 5–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	13	+14	28
2	Memmingen	13	+8	27
3	TSV 1860 München	12	+11	21
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
5	Eichstätt	13	−1	21
6	Bayreuth	13	+7	19
7	Illertissen	12	+5	19
8	Wacker Burghausen	13	+7	18
9	Vilzing	12	0	17
10	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
11	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
12	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
13	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Greuther Fürth II	12	−3	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	12	−16	10
18	Aubstadt	12	−6	9
19	Landsberg	12	−11	8