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TSV 1860 München v Bayern München II

TSV 1860 München

2–4Full time

Bayern München II

Regionalliga - Bayern · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

TSV 1860 München 2–4 Bayern München II TSV 1860 MÜNCHEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TSV 1860 München win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.748

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said TSV 1860 München win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: TSV 1860 München 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF TSV 1860 München v Bayern München II
13′Bayern München II score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–22–56
13′We said TSV 1860 München at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–22–56
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' TSV 1860 München 0–1 Bayern München II
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' TSV 1860 München win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Bayern München II win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was TSV 1860 München win 22%)
24′Bayern München II find the net on 23′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–12–80
24′We said TSV 1860 München at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–12–80
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' TSV 1860 München 0–2 Bayern München II
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' TSV 1860 München win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' TSV 1860 München win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
30′A goal for TSV 1860 München on 29′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 18–23–59
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' TSV 1860 München 1–2 Bayern München II
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' TSV 1860 München win: 46% at kick-off, 18% now
31′We said TSV 1860 München at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–23–59
41′Bayern München II score on 40′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 4–10–85
41′We said TSV 1860 München at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–3 · 4–10–85
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' TSV 1860 München 1–3 Bayern München II
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' TSV 1860 München win: 46% at kick-off, 4% now
42′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 4–10–86
45′HALF-TIME TSV 1860 München 1–3 Bayern München II
46′SECOND HALF TSV 1860 München 1–3 Bayern München II
56′TSV 1860 München find the net on 55′. 2–3. 2–3 · 10–24–67
56′We said TSV 1860 München at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 2–3 · 10–24–67
56′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 10–24–67
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' TSV 1860 München 2–3 Bayern München II
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' TSV 1860 München win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
60′TSV 1860 München pull one back on 50′ through F. Niederlechner. 2–3. 2–3 · 8–23–68
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' TSV 1860 München win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
75′A goal for Bayern München II on 74′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–3–97
75′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–3–97
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' TSV 1860 München 2–4 Bayern München II
FTFULL TIME TSV 1860 München 2–4 Bayern München II
FTTSV 1860 München 2–4 Bayern München II · TSV 1860 München win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TSV 1860 München are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TSV 1860 München 46%, draw 23%, Bayern München II 31%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on TSV 1860 München v Bayern München IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

TSV 1860 München win46%

Draw23%

Bayern München II win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TSV 1860 München

Bayern München II

5Days since last match9

Last match: 13 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	TSV 1860 München	13	+12	24
13	Bayern München II	12	+2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsv 1860 münchen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make TSV 1860 München a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TSV 1860 München v Bayern München II~~1.77 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 16~~4 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TSV 1860 München win	46%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Bayern München II win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
TSV 1860 München or draw	69%	–	–
TSV 1860 München clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bayern München II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.6 5.9 4.2 1 7.4 10.4 7.1 3.4 2 6.6 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 3.9 5.3 3.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TSV 1860 München down, Bayern München II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,813 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

TSV 1860 München at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bayern München II away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for TSV 1860 München, 1.40 for Bayern München II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept

TSV 1860 MÜNCHEN

DWLWDW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

BAYERN MÜNCHEN II

LDWWDD0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	15	+8	30
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	13	+12	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
7	Vilzing	14	+1	21
8	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
9	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
10	Nürnberg II	13	+6	19
11	Eltersdorf	14	+1	18
12	Augsburg II	13	−5	18
13	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
14	Schwaben Augsburg	14	−11	15
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	13	−8	14
16	Greuther Fürth II	14	−4	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	14	−7	10
19	Landsberg	14	−15	9