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Model 1.2

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SpVgg Unterhaching v Ansbach

SpVgg Unterhaching
2–1Full time
Ansbach

Regionalliga - Bayern · SAT 24 OCT · Uhlsport Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
SpVgg Unterhaching 2–1 Ansbach SPVGG UNTERHACHING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SpVgg Unterhaching win71%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.130
The market’s Brier score0.175

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SpVgg Unterhaching win at 71%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: SpVgg Unterhaching 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SpVgg Unterhaching v Ansbach
  4. 14′Ansbach score on 13′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 42–25–33
  5. 14′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–1 · 42–25–33
  6. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' SpVgg Unterhaching 0–1 Ansbach
  7. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 42% now
  8. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 41% now
  9. 19′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–26–34
  10. 29′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–28–38
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 34–28–38
  12. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Ansbach win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was SpVgg Unterhaching win 36%)
  13. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 31% now
  14. 38′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–29–42
  15. 45′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 1–1 · 55–32–13
  16. 45′HALF-TIME SpVgg Unterhaching 1–1 Ansbach
  17. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 55% now
  18. 46′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–30–46 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  19. 46′SpVgg Unterhaching find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 54–33–13
  20. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' SpVgg Unterhaching 1–1 Ansbach
  21. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 54% now
  22. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' SpVgg Unterhaching win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Ansbach win 46%)
  23. 46′SECOND HALF SpVgg Unterhaching 1–1 Ansbach
  24. 47′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–33–13
  25. 51′A goal for SpVgg Unterhaching on 51′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–2
  26. 51′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–11–2
  27. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
  28. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' SpVgg Unterhaching 2–1 Ansbach
  29. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 87% now
  30. 69′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  31. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 71% at kick-off, 91% now
  32. 83′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  33. FTFULL TIME SpVgg Unterhaching 2–1 Ansbach
  34. FTSpVgg Unterhaching 2–1 Ansbach · SpVgg Unterhaching win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SpVgg Unterhaching are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SpVgg Unterhaching 71%, draw 18%, Ansbach 12%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on SpVgg Unterhaching v AnsbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SpVgg Unterhaching win71%
Draw18%
Ansbach win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 16

VenueUhlsport Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SpVgg Unterhaching

Ansbach

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3SpVgg Unterhaching14+925
17Ansbach14−1612

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spvgg unterhaching winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
71% The market66%
Us71%
Market66%

We make SpVgg Unterhaching a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SpVgg Unterhaching v Ansbach2.32 – 0.80
Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 SeptW1 D5 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 25 v 123 v 17
The market · SpVgg Unterhaching win66% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:18
Our probability · SpVgg Unterhaching win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SpVgg Unterhaching win71%66%+5
Draw18%19%−1
Ansbach win12%15%−3
Over 2.5 goals60%64%−4
Both teams to score49%57%−8
Over 1.5 goals81%82%−1
Over 3.5 goals38%44%−6
SpVgg Unterhaching or draw88%85%+3
SpVgg Unterhaching clean sheet45%––
Ansbach clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%
0123450 4.8 3.6 1 10.3 8.3 3.3 2 11.8 9.2 3.7 3 9.1 7.1 2.8 4 5.3 4.1 5 2.6
under 2% 5% 12%+SpVgg Unterhaching down, Ansbach across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsANS 1–0 SPV · SPV 3–0 ANS · ANS 0–2 SPV · SPV 3–1 ANS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 Sept

SPVGG UNTERHACHING

DDDDWD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–0

ANSBACH

WWLLDD3–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Memmingen16+1033
2Buchbach16+729
3SpVgg Unterhaching14+925
4TSV 1860 München14+1024
5Illertissen14+923
6Bayreuth15+822
7Vilzing14+121
8Augsburg II14−221
9Eichstätt15−421
10Wacker Burghausen15+720
11Nürnberg II13+619
12Bayern München II13+419
13Eltersdorf15−118
14FC Schweinfurt 0515−1017
15Schwaben Augsburg14−1115
16Greuther Fürth II14−413
17Ansbach14−1612
18Aubstadt14−710
19Landsberg15−169

The competition's standings before kick-off.