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Schwaben Augsburg v Bayreuth

Schwaben Augsburg

0–3Full time

Bayreuth

Regionalliga - Bayern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Schwaben Augsburg 0–3 Bayreuth BAYREUTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayreuth win~~39%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayreuth win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Bayreuth was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
2′KICK-OFF Schwaben Augsburg v Bayreuth
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Schwaben Augsburg 0–1 Bayreuth
42′Bayreuth ahead on 27′ through N. Doll. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–69
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Bayreuth win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
45′We published Bayreuth at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Schwaben Augsburg 0–1 Bayreuth
50′SECOND HALF Schwaben Augsburg 0–1 Bayreuth
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Schwaben Augsburg 0–2 Bayreuth
67′A goal for Bayreuth on 50′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Bayreuth win: 39% at kick-off, 96% now
84′⚽ GOAL · 27' Schwaben Augsburg 0–2 Bayreuth · N. Doll
84′⚽ GOAL · 50' Schwaben Augsburg 0–2 Bayreuth
88′We published Bayreuth at 39%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Bayreuth win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Schwaben Augsburg 0–3 Bayreuth
FTFULL TIME Schwaben Augsburg 0–3 Bayreuth
FTSchwaben Augsburg 0–3 Bayreuth · Bayreuth win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Schwaben Augsburg win36%

Draw25%

Bayreuth win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayreuth winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

39% The market54%

Us39%

~~Market~~54%

We make Bayreuth a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bayreuth win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schwaben Augsburg win	36%	26%	+10
Draw	25%	20%	+5
Bayreuth win	39%	54%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	55%	74%	−19
Both teams to score	58%	72%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	54%	−22
Schwaben Augsburg or draw	61%	46%	+14
Schwaben Augsburg clean sheet	23%	–	–
Bayreuth clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 8.3 6.1 3.1 1 7.8 11.5 8.4 4.2 2 5.5 8.0 5.9 2.9 3 2.6 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schwaben Augsburg down, Bayreuth across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,791 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Schwaben Augsburg at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bayreuth away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Schwaben Augsburg, 1.49 for Bayreuth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAY 2–0 SCH · SCH 2–2 BAY · SCH 1–1 BAY · BAY 3–2 SCH

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

SCHWABEN AUGSBURG

LLLDLW0–1 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 3–1

BAYREUTH

LLWLWW2–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	12	+14	27
2	Memmingen	12	+7	24
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
4	Eichstätt	12	0	21
5	TSV 1860 München	11	+11	20
6	Illertissen	11	+5	18
7	Wacker Burghausen	12	+7	17
8	Bayreuth	12	+4	16
9	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
10	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
11	Vilzing	11	0	16
12	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
13	Nürnberg II	11	+4	13
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Schwaben Augsburg	12	−9	12
16	Greuther Fürth II	11	−3	11
17	Ansbach	11	−15	10
18	Aubstadt	11	−6	8
19	Landsberg	11	−11	7