Nürnberg II v Bayern München II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nürnberg IIDrawBayern München II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nürnberg II 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nürnberg II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nürnberg II 50%, draw 22%, Bayern München II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Nürnberg II v Bayern München IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nürnberg II win50%

Draw22%

Bayern München II win28%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nürnberg II

Bayern München II

3Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nürnberg II	14	+6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nürnberg ii winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Nürnberg II a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nürnberg II v Bayern München II~~1.94 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 19~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nürnberg II win	50%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Bayern München II win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Nürnberg II or draw	72%	–	–
Nürnberg II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bayern München II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 5.0 3.5 1 6.9 9.7 6.6 3.1 2 6.7 9.1 6.3 3.0 3 4.3 5.9 4.1 4 2.1 2.9 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nürnberg II down, Bayern München II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,818 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nürnberg II at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bayern München II away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Nürnberg II, 1.40 for Bayern München II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NUR 4–1 BAY · BAY 0–3 NUR · BAY 4–0 NUR · NUR 1–2 BAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

NÜRNBERG II

LLWWWD0–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

BAYERN MÜNCHEN II

DWWDDW0–0 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	16	+10	33
2	Buchbach	16	+7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Augsburg II	15	−1	24
6	Illertissen	15	+8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
8	Vilzing	14	+1	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	+7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	+6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	−1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	−9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	−10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	−6	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	15	−7	11
19	Landsberg	15	−16	9