Nürnberg II v Aubstadt prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Nürnberg II 1–1 Aubstadt NÜRNBERG II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nürnberg II win~~59%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.006

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.998

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nürnberg II win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nürnberg II 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
1′KICK-OFF Nürnberg II v Aubstadt
15′Nürnberg II find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
15′We said Nürnberg II at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Nürnberg II 1–0 Aubstadt
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Nürnberg II win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
35′A goal for Aubstadt on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 50–30–20
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Nürnberg II 1–1 Aubstadt
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Nürnberg II win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Nürnberg II win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
42′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–33–20
45′HALF-TIME Nürnberg II 1–1 Aubstadt
46′SECOND HALF Nürnberg II 1–1 Aubstadt
49′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–37–19
58′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Nürnberg II win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Nürnberg II win 41%)
65′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–16
71′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Nürnberg II win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
76′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–65–12
80′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–73–9
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Nürnberg II win: 59% at kick-off, 18% now
83′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–7
87′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Nürnberg II win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
92′We said Nürnberg II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–2
FTFULL TIME Nürnberg II 1–1 Aubstadt
FTNürnberg II 1–1 Aubstadt · Nürnberg II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nürnberg II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nürnberg II 59%, draw 21%, Aubstadt 20%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Nürnberg II v AubstadtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nürnberg II win59%

Draw21%

Aubstadt win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nürnberg II

Aubstadt

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nürnberg II	13	+6	19
18	Aubstadt	14	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nürnberg ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market59%

Us59%

~~Market~~59%

We make Nürnberg II a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nürnberg II v Aubstadt~~2.04 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 10~~11 v 18

~~The market · Nürnberg II win~~59% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nürnberg II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nürnberg II win	59%	59%	0
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Aubstadt win	20%	19%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Nürnberg II or draw	80%	81%	−1
Nürnberg II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Aubstadt clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.7 4.8 2.7 1 8.9 9.8 5.3 2 9.0 9.6 5.3 3 6.1 6.5 3.6 4 3.2 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nürnberg II down, Aubstadt across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,818 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nürnberg II at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aubstadt away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Nürnberg II, 1.09 for Aubstadt. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUB 0–1 NUR · NUR 4–0 AUB · NUR 1–0 AUB · AUB 1–1 NUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

NÜRNBERG II

WLLWWW5–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

AUBSTADT

LLLDDL0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	16	+10	33
2	Buchbach	16	+7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
7	Vilzing	14	+1	21
8	Augsburg II	14	−2	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	+7	20
11	Nürnberg II	13	+6	19
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	−1	18
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	−10	17
15	Schwaben Augsburg	14	−11	15
16	Greuther Fürth II	14	−4	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	14	−7	10
19	Landsberg	15	−16	9