Memmingen v Nürnberg II prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Memmingen 1–2 Nürnberg II NÜRNBERG II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nürnberg II win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.494

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nürnberg II win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nürnberg II was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
1′KICK-OFF Memmingen v Nürnberg II
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nürnberg II win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Memmingen 0–0 Nürnberg II
46′SECOND HALF Memmingen 0–0 Nürnberg II
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Nürnberg II win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
52′We said Nürnberg II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 25–44–31
55′A goal for Nürnberg II on 54′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–19–76
55′We published Nürnberg II at 43%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Memmingen 0–1 Nürnberg II
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Nürnberg II win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Nürnberg II win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
65′We published Nürnberg II at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
70′Memmingen score on 70′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 18–61–22
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Memmingen 1–1 Nürnberg II
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Nürnberg II win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Nürnberg II win 22%)
71′We said Nürnberg II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 17–62–21
71′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 17–62–21
74′We said Nürnberg II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
79′We said Nürnberg II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Nürnberg II win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
84′We said Nürnberg II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 7–85–8
87′Nürnberg II find the net on 86′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′We published Nürnberg II at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Memmingen 1–2 Nürnberg II
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Nürnberg II win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Nürnberg II win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
91′Nürnberg II ahead on 87′ through M. Soldic. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME Memmingen 1–2 Nürnberg II
FTMemmingen 1–2 Nürnberg II · Nürnberg II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nürnberg II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Memmingen 31%, draw 26%, Nürnberg II 43%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Memmingen v Nürnberg IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Memmingen win31%

Draw26%

Nürnberg II win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Memmingen

Nürnberg II

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nürnberg ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Nürnberg II a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Memmingen v Nürnberg II~~1.20 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 16~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nürnberg II win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Memmingen win	31%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Nürnberg II win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Memmingen or draw	57%	–	–
Memmingen clean sheet	24%	–	–
Nürnberg II clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 10.3 7.4 3.6 1 8.5 12.2 8.7 4.2 2 5.1 7.2 5.2 2.5 3 2.1 2.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Memmingen down, Nürnberg II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,807 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Memmingen at home: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nürnberg II away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Memmingen, 1.44 for Nürnberg II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NUR 2–0 MEM · MEM 0–2 NUR · NUR 2–1 MEM · MEM 0–3 NUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept

MEMMINGEN

DWLWWW0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

NÜRNBERG II

LWLLWW1–2 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	14	+9	30
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
3	TSV 1860 München	13	+12	24
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	13	+9	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Eichstätt	14	−2	21
7	Vilzing	13	+1	20
8	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
9	Bayreuth	14	+6	19
10	Augsburg II	13	−5	18
11	Eltersdorf	13	+1	17
12	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
13	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	13	−8	14
15	Greuther Fürth II	13	−4	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	13	−16	11
18	Aubstadt	13	−6	10
19	Landsberg	13	−15	8