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Memmingen v Eichstätt

Memmingen

1–0Full time

Eichstätt

Regionalliga - Bayern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Memmingen 1–0 Eichstätt MEMMINGEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Memmingen win~~37%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.595

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Memmingen win at 37%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Memmingen 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
2′KICK-OFF Memmingen v Eichstätt
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Memmingen win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME Memmingen 0–0 Eichstätt
48′SECOND HALF Memmingen 0–0 Eichstätt
65′We said Memmingen at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–0 · 21–59–20
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Memmingen win: 37% at kick-off, 21% now
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Memmingen 1–0 Eichstätt
82′⚽ GOAL · 66' Memmingen 1–0 Eichstätt · C. Kresin
86′66′ and it is 1–0: C. Kresin on the scoresheet for Memmingen. 1–0 · 96–4–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Memmingen win: 37% at kick-off, 96% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Memmingen win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
FTFULL TIME Memmingen 1–0 Eichstätt
FTMemmingen 1–0 Eichstätt · Memmingen win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Memmingen win37%

Draw29%

Eichstätt win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · memmingen winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

37% The market45%

Us37%

~~Market~~45%

We make Memmingen a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · memmingen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Memmingen win	37%	45%	−8
Draw	29%	27%	+3
Eichstätt win	34%	28%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	38%	56%	−18
Both teams to score	44%	58%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	64%	76%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	18%	36%	−17
Memmingen or draw	66%	72%	−6
Memmingen clean sheet	35%	–	–
Eichstätt clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 11.4 11.8 6.3 2.3 1 12.5 13.1 7.0 2.5 2 7.1 7.4 4.0 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Memmingen down, Eichstätt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,791 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Memmingen at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Eichstätt away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Memmingen, 1.07 for Eichstätt. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MEM 0–1 EIC · EIC 1–2 MEM · MEM 2–2 EIC · EIC 3–2 MEM

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

MEMMINGEN

WDDWLW1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

EICHSTÄTT

LWWWDW0–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	12	+14	27
2	Memmingen	12	+7	24
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
4	Eichstätt	12	0	21
5	TSV 1860 München	11	+11	20
6	Illertissen	11	+5	18
7	Wacker Burghausen	12	+7	17
8	Bayreuth	12	+4	16
9	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
10	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
11	Vilzing	11	0	16
12	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
13	Nürnberg II	11	+4	13
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Schwaben Augsburg	12	−9	12
16	Greuther Fürth II	11	−3	11
17	Ansbach	11	−15	10
18	Aubstadt	11	−6	8
19	Landsberg	11	−11	7