Landsberg v Eltersdorf prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Landsberg 1–1 Eltersdorf ELTERSDORF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Eltersdorf win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eltersdorf win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Eltersdorf 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
1′KICK-OFF Landsberg v Eltersdorf
27′Landsberg find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 58–23–18
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Landsberg 1–0 Eltersdorf
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Eltersdorf win: 46% at kick-off, 18% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Landsberg win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Eltersdorf win 18%)
28′We said Eltersdorf at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–23–18
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 59–23–18
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Eltersdorf win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
41′We said Eltersdorf at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
45′HALF-TIME Landsberg 1–0 Eltersdorf
46′SECOND HALF Landsberg 1–0 Eltersdorf
52′A goal for Eltersdorf on 52′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–40–35
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Landsberg 1–1 Eltersdorf
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Eltersdorf win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Landsberg win 26%)
53′We said Eltersdorf at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 25–40–34
63′We said Eltersdorf at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–48–29
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Eltersdorf win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
71′We said Eltersdorf at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Eltersdorf win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
85′We said Eltersdorf at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–83–9
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Eltersdorf win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Landsberg 1–1 Eltersdorf
FTLandsberg 1–1 Eltersdorf · Eltersdorf win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eltersdorf are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Landsberg 31%, draw 23%, Eltersdorf 46%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Landsberg v EltersdorfBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Landsberg win31%

Draw23%

Eltersdorf win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Landsberg

Eltersdorf

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Eltersdorf	13	+1	17
19	Landsberg	13	−15	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eltersdorf winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:41 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Eltersdorf a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Landsberg v Eltersdorf~~1.39 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 17~~19 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eltersdorf win

Published at 43%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Landsberg win	31%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Eltersdorf win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Landsberg or draw	54%	–	–
Landsberg clean sheet	19%	–	–
Eltersdorf clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 7.8 6.6 3.9 1 6.3 10.5 8.8 5.1 2.3 2 4.3 7.1 6.0 3.5 3 2.0 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Landsberg down, Eltersdorf across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,807 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Landsberg at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Eltersdorf away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Landsberg, 1.74 for Eltersdorf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept

LANDSBERG

WDLLDL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 0–4

ELTERSDORF

LLLWDD0–2 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	14	+9	30
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
3	TSV 1860 München	13	+12	24
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	13	+9	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Eichstätt	14	−2	21
7	Vilzing	13	+1	20
8	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
9	Bayreuth	14	+6	19
10	Augsburg II	13	−5	18
11	Eltersdorf	13	+1	17
12	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
13	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	13	−8	14
15	Greuther Fürth II	13	−4	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	13	−16	11
18	Aubstadt	13	−6	10
19	Landsberg	13	−15	8