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Landsberg v Aubstadt

Landsberg

2–2Full time

Aubstadt

Regionalliga - Bayern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Landsberg 2–2 Aubstadt AUBSTADT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aubstadt win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aubstadt win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Aubstadt was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 33–26–42
2′KICK-OFF Landsberg v Aubstadt
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Landsberg 1–0 Aubstadt
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Landsberg 1–1 Aubstadt
42′36′ and it is 1–1: J. Endres on the scoresheet for Aubstadt. 1–1 · 29–37–35
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Landsberg 2–1 Aubstadt
45′Landsberg ahead on 43′ through M. Seemuller. 2–1. 2–1 · 66–23–10
45′HALF-TIME Landsberg 2–1 Aubstadt
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Aubstadt win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Landsberg win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Aubstadt win 10%)
49′SECOND HALF Landsberg 2–1 Aubstadt
66′We said Aubstadt at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–20–4
84′⚽ GOAL · 34' Landsberg 2–1 Aubstadt · M. Seemuller
84′⚽ GOAL · 36' Landsberg 2–1 Aubstadt · J. Endres
84′⚽ GOAL · 43' Landsberg 2–1 Aubstadt · M. Seemuller
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Aubstadt win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Landsberg 2–2 Aubstadt
FTFULL TIME Landsberg 2–2 Aubstadt
FTLandsberg 2–2 Aubstadt · Aubstadt win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Landsberg win33%

Draw25%

Aubstadt win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aubstadt winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Aubstadt a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Landsberg win	33%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Aubstadt win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Landsberg or draw	58%	–	–
Landsberg clean sheet	23%	–	–
Aubstadt clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 9.3 6.8 3.4 1 8.1 11.7 8.6 4.3 2 5.2 7.5 5.5 2.8 3 2.3 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Landsberg down, Aubstadt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,791 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Landsberg at home: 0.80 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Aubstadt away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Landsberg, 1.49 for Aubstadt. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

LANDSBERG

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5

AUBSTADT

WLLLLL2–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	12	+14	27
2	Memmingen	12	+7	24
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
4	Eichstätt	12	0	21
5	TSV 1860 München	11	+11	20
6	Illertissen	11	+5	18
7	Wacker Burghausen	12	+7	17
8	Bayreuth	12	+4	16
9	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
10	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
11	Vilzing	11	0	16
12	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
13	Nürnberg II	11	+4	13
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Schwaben Augsburg	12	−9	12
16	Greuther Fürth II	11	−3	11
17	Ansbach	11	−15	10
18	Aubstadt	11	−6	8
19	Landsberg	11	−11	7