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Illertissen v TSV 1860 München

Illertissen

1–1Full time

TSV 1860 München

Regionalliga - Bayern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Illertissen 1–1 TSV 1860 München ILLERTISSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Illertissen win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.916

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.878

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Illertissen win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Illertissen 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Illertissen v TSV 1860 München
45′HALF-TIME Illertissen 0–0 TSV 1860 München
48′SECOND HALF Illertissen 0–0 TSV 1860 München
65′We said Illertissen at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–49–21
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Illertissen win: 48% at kick-off, 30% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Illertissen win 30%)
73′⚽ GOAL · 70' Illertissen 0–1 TSV 1860 München · F. Niederlechner
83′⚽ GOAL · 70' Illertissen 0–1 TSV 1860 München · F. Niederlechner
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Illertissen 1–1 TSV 1860 München
86′D. Milic scores for Illertissen on 84′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 7–87–6
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Illertissen win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
FTFULL TIME Illertissen 1–1 TSV 1860 München
FTIllertissen 1–1 TSV 1860 München · Illertissen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Illertissen win48%

Draw23%

TSV 1860 München win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · illertissen winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Illertissen a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · illertissen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Illertissen win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	23%	24%	−1
TSV 1860 München win	30%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	62%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Illertissen or draw	70%	64%	+7
Illertissen clean sheet	25%	–	–
TSV 1860 München clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.2 5.6 3.9 1 7.3 10.0 6.9 3.3 2 6.6 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 4.1 5.5 3.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Illertissen down, TSV 1860 München across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,791 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Illertissen at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). TSV 1860 München away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Illertissen, 1.39 for TSV 1860 München. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

ILLERTISSEN

LLWWLD0–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 3–3

TSV 1860 MÜNCHEN

DWDWLW2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	12	+14	27
2	Memmingen	12	+7	24
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
4	Eichstätt	12	0	21
5	TSV 1860 München	11	+11	20
6	Illertissen	11	+5	18
7	Wacker Burghausen	12	+7	17
8	Bayreuth	12	+4	16
9	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
10	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
11	Vilzing	11	0	16
12	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
13	Nürnberg II	11	+4	13
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Schwaben Augsburg	12	−9	12
16	Greuther Fürth II	11	−3	11
17	Ansbach	11	−15	10
18	Aubstadt	11	−6	8
19	Landsberg	11	−11	7