Illertissen v Greuther Fürth II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IllertissenDrawGreuther Fürth II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Illertissen 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Illertissen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Illertissen 58%, draw 22%, Greuther Fürth II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Illertissen v Greuther Fürth IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Illertissen win58%

Draw22%

Greuther Fürth II win21%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Illertissen

Greuther Fürth II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Illertissen	15	+8	23
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	−6	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · illertissen winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Illertissen a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Illertissen v Greuther Fürth II~~2.02 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 13~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Illertissen win	58%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Greuther Fürth II win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Illertissen or draw	79%	–	–
Illertissen clean sheet	33%	–	–
Greuther Fürth II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.7 4.9 2.8 1 8.7 9.9 5.4 2.1 2 8.8 9.6 5.4 2.0 3 5.9 6.4 3.6 4 3.0 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Illertissen down, Greuther Fürth II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,822 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 141 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Illertissen at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Greuther Fürth II away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Illertissen, 1.12 for Greuther Fürth II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GRE 1–2 ILL · ILL 2–1 GRE · ILL 0–0 GRE · GRE 0–3 ILL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 Sept

ILLERTISSEN

LDDDWL0–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–2

GREUTHER FÜRTH II

WDDLDL2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	16	+10	33
2	Buchbach	16	+7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Augsburg II	15	−1	24
6	Illertissen	15	+8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
8	Vilzing	14	+1	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	+7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	+6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	−1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	−9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	−10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	−6	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	15	−7	11
19	Landsberg	15	−16	9