Illertissen v Buchbach prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Illertissen 4–0 Buchbach ILLERTISSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Illertissen win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Illertissen win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Illertissen was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
1′KICK-OFF Illertissen v Buchbach
4′Illertissen score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–15–10
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Illertissen 1–0 Buchbach
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Illertissen win: 54% at kick-off, 75% now
5′We published Illertissen at 54%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–10
6′Illertissen find the net on 6′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
6′We published Illertissen at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Illertissen 2–0 Buchbach
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Illertissen win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
8′Illertissen ahead on 4′ through D. Milic. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Illertissen win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
44′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Illertissen 2–0 Buchbach
46′SECOND HALF Illertissen 2–0 Buchbach
51′We published Illertissen at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
72′A goal for Illertissen on 72′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′We published Illertissen at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Illertissen 3–0 Buchbach
75′D. Milic scores for Illertissen on 70′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′Illertissen score on 78′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Illertissen 4–0 Buchbach
81′74′: N. Cassaniti on the scoresheet for Illertissen, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Illertissen 4–0 Buchbach
FTIllertissen 4–0 Buchbach · Illertissen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Illertissen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Illertissen 54%, draw 21%, Buchbach 25%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Illertissen v BuchbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Illertissen win54%

Draw21%

Buchbach win25%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Illertissen

Buchbach

3Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Buchbach	14	+11	28
6	Illertissen	13	+5	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · illertissen winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 14 Oct 04:41 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Illertissen a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Illertissen v Buchbach~~2.03 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 28~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Illertissen win

Published at 53%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Illertissen win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Buchbach win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Illertissen or draw	75%	–	–
Illertissen clean sheet	27%	–	–
Buchbach clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 4.7 3.1 1 7.3 9.4 6.1 2.7 2 7.3 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.9 6.3 4.1 4 2.5 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Illertissen down, Buchbach across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,806 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Illertissen at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Buchbach away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Illertissen, 1.31 for Buchbach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUC 0–3 ILL · ILL 4–1 BUC · BUC 3–0 ILL · ILL 2–0 BUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 11 Sept

ILLERTISSEN

WWLDDD2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

BUCHBACH

WWDLDL3–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	14	+9	30
2	Buchbach	14	+11	28
3	TSV 1860 München	13	+12	24
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	13	+9	24
5	Eichstätt	14	−2	21
6	Illertissen	13	+5	20
7	Vilzing	13	+1	20
8	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
9	Bayreuth	14	+6	19
10	Augsburg II	13	−5	18
11	Eltersdorf	13	+1	17
12	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
13	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	13	−8	14
15	Greuther Fürth II	13	−4	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	13	−16	11
18	Aubstadt	13	−6	10
19	Landsberg	13	−15	8