Greuther Fürth II v Schwaben Augsburg prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Greuther Fürth II 0–2 Schwaben Augsburg GREUTHER FÜRTH II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Greuther Fürth II win~~52%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.875

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Greuther Fürth II win at 52%.
2′Much as we predicted: Greuther Fürth II was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
2′KICK-OFF Greuther Fürth II v Schwaben Augsburg
39′Schwaben Augsburg score on 39′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–26–57
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Greuther Fürth II 0–1 Schwaben Augsburg
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Greuther Fürth II win: 52% at kick-off, 18% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Schwaben Augsburg win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Greuther Fürth II win 43%)
40′We said Greuther Fürth II at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–26–57
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–26–57
45′HALF-TIME Greuther Fürth II 0–1 Schwaben Augsburg
46′SECOND HALF Greuther Fürth II 0–1 Schwaben Augsburg
48′We said Greuther Fürth II at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Greuther Fürth II win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
58′Schwaben Augsburg find the net on 58′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
58′We said Greuther Fürth II at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Greuther Fürth II 0–2 Schwaben Augsburg
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Greuther Fürth II win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Greuther Fürth II 0–2 Schwaben Augsburg
FTGreuther Fürth II 0–2 Schwaben Augsburg · Greuther Fürth II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Greuther Fürth II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Greuther Fürth II 52%, draw 23%, Schwaben Augsburg 26%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Greuther Fürth II v Schwaben AugsburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Greuther Fürth II win52%

Draw23%

Schwaben Augsburg win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Greuther Fürth II

Schwaben Augsburg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Schwaben Augsburg	14	−11	15
16	Greuther Fürth II	14	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · greuther fürth ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market50%

Us52%

~~Market~~50%

We make Greuther Fürth II a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Greuther Fürth II v Schwaben Augsburg~~1.88 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 15~~16 v 15

~~The market · Greuther Fürth II win~~50% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Greuther Fürth II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Greuther Fürth II win	52%	50%	+2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Schwaben Augsburg win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	57%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	37%	+1
Greuther Fürth II or draw	74%	75%	−1
Greuther Fürth II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Schwaben Augsburg clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.7 5.5 3.5 1 8.2 10.3 6.3 2.7 2 7.7 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.8 5.9 3.7 4 2.3 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Greuther Fürth II down, Schwaben Augsburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,818 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Greuther Fürth II at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Schwaben Augsburg away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Greuther Fürth II, 1.25 for Schwaben Augsburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SCH 4–2 GRE · GRE 1–1 SCH · SCH 2–3 GRE · GRE 1–0 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

GREUTHER FÜRTH II

LWDDLD2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

SCHWABEN AUGSBURG

LDLWLW0–5 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	16	+10	33
2	Buchbach	16	+7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
7	Vilzing	14	+1	21
8	Augsburg II	14	−2	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	+7	20
11	Nürnberg II	13	+6	19
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	−1	18
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	−10	17
15	Schwaben Augsburg	14	−11	15
16	Greuther Fürth II	14	−4	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	14	−7	10
19	Landsberg	15	−16	9