Greuther Fürth II v Memmingen prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Greuther Fürth II 0–1 Memmingen GREUTHER FÜRTH II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Greuther Fürth II win~~42%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.712

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.541

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Greuther Fürth II win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Greuther Fürth II v Memmingen
2′Little has changed for our model: Greuther Fürth II 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Greuther Fürth II win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Greuther Fürth II 0–0 Memmingen
46′SECOND HALF Greuther Fürth II 0–0 Memmingen
47′A goal for Memmingen on 47′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–67
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Greuther Fürth II 0–1 Memmingen
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Greuther Fürth II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Memmingen win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
48′We said Greuther Fürth II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
66′We said Greuther Fürth II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Greuther Fürth II win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Greuther Fürth II 0–1 Memmingen
FTGreuther Fürth II 0–1 Memmingen · Greuther Fürth II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Greuther Fürth II win42%

Draw26%

Memmingen win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Greuther Fürth II

Memmingen

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Memmingen	13	+8	27
15	Greuther Fürth II	12	−3	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · greuther fürth ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

42% The market31%

Us42%

~~Market~~31%

We make Greuther Fürth II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · greuther fürth ii win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Greuther Fürth II win	42%	31%	+11
Draw	26%	29%	−2
Memmingen win	32%	40%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Greuther Fürth II or draw	68%	60%	+8
Greuther Fürth II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Memmingen clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.6 8.7 5.2 2.1 1 10.4 12.2 7.3 2.9 2 7.4 8.6 5.1 2.1 3 3.5 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Greuther Fürth II down, Memmingen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,798 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Greuther Fürth II at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Memmingen away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Greuther Fürth II, 1.20 for Memmingen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GRE 2–1 MEM · MEM 1–1 GRE · MEM 1–0 GRE · GRE 1–2 MEM

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

GREUTHER FÜRTH II

WDLWDD3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

MEMMINGEN

DDWLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	13	+14	28
2	Memmingen	13	+8	27
3	TSV 1860 München	12	+11	21
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
5	Eichstätt	13	−1	21
6	Bayreuth	13	+7	19
7	Illertissen	12	+5	19
8	Wacker Burghausen	13	+7	18
9	Vilzing	12	0	17
10	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
11	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
12	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
13	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Greuther Fürth II	12	−3	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	12	−16	10
18	Aubstadt	12	−6	9
19	Landsberg	12	−11	8