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Model 1.2

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FC Schweinfurt 05 v Landsberg

FC Schweinfurt 05
2–1Full time
Landsberg

Regionalliga - Bayern · FRI 23 OCT · Sachs-Stadion

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
FC Schweinfurt 05 2–1 Landsberg FC SCHWEINFURT 05 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said FC Schweinfurt 05 win58%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.263
The market’s Brier score0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Schweinfurt 05 win at 58%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF FC Schweinfurt 05 v Landsberg
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: FC Schweinfurt 05 was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
  4. 3′A goal for Landsberg on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 35–22–42
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' FC Schweinfurt 05 0–1 Landsberg
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 58% at kick-off, 35% now
  7. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Landsberg win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was FC Schweinfurt 05 win 58%)
  8. 4′We said FC Schweinfurt 05 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–1 · 35–23–43
  9. 5′FC Schweinfurt 05 score on 4′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 57–22–21
  10. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Landsberg
  11. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 58% at kick-off, 57% now
  12. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' FC Schweinfurt 05 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Landsberg win 43%)
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  14. 44′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 47–33–21
  15. 45′We said FC Schweinfurt 05 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–33–21
  16. 45′HALF-TIME FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Landsberg
  17. 46′SECOND HALF FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Landsberg
  18. 49′We said FC Schweinfurt 05 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–35–20
  19. 52′FC Schweinfurt 05 find the net on 52′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–4
  20. 52′We published FC Schweinfurt 05 at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–15–4
  21. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Schweinfurt 05 2–1 Landsberg
  22. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
  23. 55′FC Schweinfurt 05 ahead on 51′ through B. Ozturk. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
  24. 70′We published FC Schweinfurt 05 at 58%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  25. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
  26. 80′We published FC Schweinfurt 05 at 58%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  27. 87′We published FC Schweinfurt 05 at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  28. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
  29. FTFULL TIME FC Schweinfurt 05 2–1 Landsberg
  30. FTFC Schweinfurt 05 2–1 Landsberg · FC Schweinfurt 05 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Schweinfurt 05 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Schweinfurt 05 58%, draw 21%, Landsberg 21%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on FC Schweinfurt 05 v LandsbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Schweinfurt 05 win58%
Draw21%
Landsberg win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern · matchday 16

VenueSachs-Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Schweinfurt 05

Landsberg

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15FC Schweinfurt 0514−1114
19Landsberg14−159

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc schweinfurt 05 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
58% The market52%
Us58%
Market52%

We make FC Schweinfurt 05 a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Schweinfurt 05 v Landsberg2.13 – 1.20
Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 SeptW0 D3 L3 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 14 v 915 v 19
The market · FC Schweinfurt 05 win52% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:41
Our probability · FC Schweinfurt 05 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Schweinfurt 05 win58%52%+6
Draw21%23%−2
Landsberg win21%25%−4
Over 2.5 goals64%61%+3
Both teams to score61%61%0
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals42%39%+3
FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw79%75%+4
FC Schweinfurt 05 clean sheet31%––
Landsberg clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%
0123450 4.0 4.4 2.7 1 7.7 9.2 5.4 2.2 2 8.1 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 5.7 6.6 3.9 4 3.1 3.6 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Schweinfurt 05 down, Landsberg across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

FC SCHWEINFURT 05

LLDDDL0–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

LANDSBERG

DLLDLD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Memmingen15+830
2Buchbach15+728
3SpVgg Unterhaching14+925
4TSV 1860 München14+1024
5Illertissen14+923
6Bayreuth15+822
7Vilzing14+121
8Augsburg II14−221
9Eichstätt15−421
10Wacker Burghausen14+719
11Nürnberg II13+619
12Bayern München II13+419
13Eltersdorf14+118
14Schwaben Augsburg14−1115
15FC Schweinfurt 0514−1114
16Greuther Fürth II14−413
17Ansbach14−1612
18Aubstadt14−710
19Landsberg14−159

The competition's standings before kick-off.