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FC Schweinfurt 05 v Eltersdorf

FC Schweinfurt 05

1–1Full time

Eltersdorf

Regionalliga - Bayern · FRI 9 OCT · Sachs-Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Eltersdorf FC SCHWEINFURT 05 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Schweinfurt 05 win~~48%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.943

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.939

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Schweinfurt 05 win at 48%.
28′Y. Jassmann scores for Eltersdorf on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Eltersdorf win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was FC Schweinfurt 05 win 21%)
40′We said FC Schweinfurt 05 at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' FC Schweinfurt 05 win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Eltersdorf
45′HALF-TIME FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Eltersdorf
45′⚽ GOAL · 18' FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Eltersdorf · Y. Jassmann
46′SECOND HALF FC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Eltersdorf
FTFC Schweinfurt 05 1–1 Eltersdorf · FC Schweinfurt 05 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Schweinfurt 05 win48%

Draw21%

Eltersdorf win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Sachs-Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc schweinfurt 05 winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

48% The market31%

Us48%

~~Market~~31%

We make FC Schweinfurt 05 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc schweinfurt 05 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Schweinfurt 05 win	48%	31%	+17
Draw	21%	21%	0
Eltersdorf win	30%	47%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	67%	73%	−5
Both teams to score	66%	72%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw	70%	53%	+17
FC Schweinfurt 05 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Eltersdorf clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.3 4.8 3.6 1 6.2 9.0 6.7 3.4 2 5.9 8.6 6.4 3.3 3 3.9 5.6 4.2 2.2 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Schweinfurt 05 down, Eltersdorf across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,789 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Eltersdorf away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for FC Schweinfurt 05, 1.52 for Eltersdorf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCS 4–2 ELT · ELT 0–4 FCS

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

FC SCHWEINFURT 05

WLLLLD5–2 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–1

ELTERSDORF

DWLLLW3–3 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	12	+14	27
2	Memmingen	12	+7	24
3	Eichstätt	12	0	21
4	TSV 1860 München	11	+11	20
5	SpVgg Unterhaching	11	+5	20
6	Illertissen	11	+5	18
7	Wacker Burghausen	12	+7	17
8	Bayreuth	12	+4	16
9	Vilzing	11	0	16
10	Bayern München II	11	+2	15
11	Eltersdorf	11	+1	15
12	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
13	Nürnberg II	11	+4	13
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	11	−8	12
15	Schwaben Augsburg	12	−9	12
16	Greuther Fürth II	11	−3	11
17	Ansbach	11	−15	10
18	Aubstadt	11	−6	8
19	Landsberg	11	−11	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

The table