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Eltersdorf v Wacker Burghausen

Eltersdorf

2–2Full time

Wacker Burghausen

Regionalliga - Bayern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Eltersdorf 2–2 Wacker Burghausen ELTERSDORF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eltersdorf win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.898

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.908

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eltersdorf win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Eltersdorf was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
1′KICK-OFF Eltersdorf v Wacker Burghausen
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Eltersdorf 1–0 Wacker Burghausen
31′Eltersdorf find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
32′We published Eltersdorf at 41%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–13
33′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–13
45′HALF-TIME Eltersdorf 1–0 Wacker Burghausen
46′SECOND HALF Eltersdorf 1–0 Wacker Burghausen
48′We published Eltersdorf at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
64′We published Eltersdorf at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
66′A goal for Eltersdorf on 65′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Eltersdorf 2–0 Wacker Burghausen
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
67′We published Eltersdorf at 41%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
69′69′ and it is 2–1: Wacker Burghausen have scored. 2–1 · 78–19–4
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Eltersdorf 2–1 Wacker Burghausen
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
70′68′ and it is 2–1: N. Simic on the scoresheet for Wacker Burghausen. 2–1 · 78–18–4
72′We published Eltersdorf at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
80′We published Eltersdorf at 41%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
83′We published Eltersdorf at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
FTFULL TIME Eltersdorf 2–1 Wacker Burghausen
FTEltersdorf 2–2 Wacker Burghausen · Eltersdorf win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Eltersdorf win41%

Draw23%

Wacker Burghausen win36%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Eltersdorf

Wacker Burghausen

4Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Wacker Burghausen	13	+7	18
12	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eltersdorf winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Eltersdorf a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · eltersdorf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eltersdorf win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	23%	22%	0
Wacker Burghausen win	36%	39%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Both teams to score	64%	69%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Eltersdorf or draw	64%	61%	+3
Eltersdorf clean sheet	21%	–	–
Wacker Burghausen clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 5.9 4.7 2.5 1 6.4 9.8 7.7 4.1 2 5.4 8.2 6.5 3.5 3 3.1 4.7 3.7 2.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eltersdorf down, Wacker Burghausen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,798 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eltersdorf at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wacker Burghausen away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Eltersdorf, 1.61 for Wacker Burghausen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAC 3–0 ELT · ELT 1–5 WAC

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

ELTERSDORF

WLLLWD3–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 1–1

WACKER BURGHAUSEN

LDWWLD1–2 · 0–0 · 5–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	13	+14	28
2	Memmingen	13	+8	27
3	TSV 1860 München	12	+11	21
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
5	Eichstätt	13	−1	21
6	Bayreuth	13	+7	19
7	Illertissen	12	+5	19
8	Wacker Burghausen	13	+7	18
9	Vilzing	12	0	17
10	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
11	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
12	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
13	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Greuther Fürth II	12	−3	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	12	−16	10
18	Aubstadt	12	−6	9
19	Landsberg	12	−11	8