Eltersdorf v Memmingen prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Eltersdorf 0–2 Memmingen ELTERSDORF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eltersdorf win~~41%

~~The market said~~13%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eltersdorf win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Eltersdorf 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Eltersdorf v Memmingen
4′A goal for Memmingen on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–22–60
4′We said Eltersdorf at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–60
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Eltersdorf 0–1 Memmingen
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Memmingen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Eltersdorf win 41%)
7′Eltersdorf score on 6′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–28–32
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Eltersdorf 1–1 Memmingen
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Eltersdorf win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Memmingen win 60%)
8′GOAL DISALLOWED · 8' Eltersdorf
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Memmingen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Eltersdorf win 40%)
25′We said Eltersdorf at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
31′Memmingen score on 31′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Eltersdorf 0–2 Memmingen
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 4% now
32′We said Eltersdorf at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–87
34′19′: C. Kresin on the scoresheet for Memmingen, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′HALF-TIME Eltersdorf 0–2 Memmingen
46′SECOND HALF Eltersdorf 0–2 Memmingen
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Eltersdorf win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Eltersdorf 0–2 Memmingen
FTEltersdorf 0–2 Memmingen · Eltersdorf win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eltersdorf are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eltersdorf 41%, draw 27%, Memmingen 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Eltersdorf v MemmingenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Eltersdorf win41%

Draw27%

Memmingen win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eltersdorf

Memmingen

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eltersdorf winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market13%

Us41%

~~Market~~13%

We make Eltersdorf a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 13%. We are 28 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eltersdorf v Memmingen~~1.36 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 30~~13 v 1

~~The market · Eltersdorf win~~13% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eltersdorf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 13% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eltersdorf win	41%	13%	+28
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Memmingen win	32%	65%	−33
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	45%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Eltersdorf or draw	68%	35%	+33
Eltersdorf clean sheet	32%	–	–
Memmingen clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.5 9.3 5.5 2.2 1 10.8 12.5 7.2 2.9 2 7.3 8.3 4.8 3 3.4 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eltersdorf down, Memmingen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,815 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eltersdorf at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Memmingen away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Eltersdorf, 1.17 for Memmingen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ELT 1–3 MEM · MEM 1–1 ELT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 Sept

ELTERSDORF

LLWDDD2–3 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

MEMMINGEN

WLWWWL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	15	+8	30
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
7	Vilzing	14	+1	21
8	Augsburg II	14	−2	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
11	Nürnberg II	13	+6	19
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	14	+1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	14	−11	15
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	14	−11	14
16	Greuther Fürth II	14	−4	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	14	−7	10
19	Landsberg	14	−15	9