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Model 1.1

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Eichstätt v Vilzing

Eichstätt
2–3Full time
Vilzing

Regionalliga - Bayern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46
Eichstätt 2–3 Vilzing EICHSTÄTT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Eichstätt win41%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.705
The market’s Brier score0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Eichstätt win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Eichstätt 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Eichstätt v Vilzing
  4. 11′10′ and it is 0–1: M. Ziereis on the scoresheet for Vilzing. 0–1 · 17–23–60
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Eichstätt 0–1 Vilzing
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Eichstätt win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
  7. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Vilzing win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Eichstätt win 17%)
  8. 12′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–60
  9. 25′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
  11. 32′Vilzing find the net on 31′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–87
  12. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Eichstätt 0–2 Vilzing
  13. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Eichstätt win: 41% at kick-off, 3% now
  14. 33′Vilzing ahead on 29′ through M. Ziereis. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–87
  15. 34′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  16. 45′E. Herger scores for Eichstätt on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–23–67
  17. 45′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 10–23–67
  18. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Eichstätt 1–2 Vilzing
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Eichstätt 1–2 Vilzing
  20. 46′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–67
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Eichstätt 1–2 Vilzing
  22. 50′50′ and it is 2–2: Eichstätt have scored. 2–2 · 31–43–25
  23. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Eichstätt 2–2 Vilzing
  24. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Eichstätt win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  25. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Vilzing win 25%)
  26. 52′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 30–45–25
  27. 52′Little has changed for our model: Eichstätt 41% before kick-off, 30% now. 2–2 · 30–45–25
  28. 55′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–47–24
  29. 65′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–56–20
  30. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Eichstätt win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  31. 73′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–65–16
  32. 78′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–73–12
  33. 78′Vilzing find the net on 78′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–13–86
  34. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Eichstätt 2–3 Vilzing
  35. 79′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–12–86
  36. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Eichstätt win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  37. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Vilzing win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
  38. 81′We said Eichstätt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–11–89
  39. FTFULL TIME Eichstätt 2–3 Vilzing
  40. FTEichstätt 2–3 Vilzing · Eichstätt win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Eichstätt win41%
Draw27%
Vilzing win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Eichstätt

Vilzing

3Days since last match3
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Eichstätt13−121
9Vilzing12017

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eichstätt winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off
41% The market42%
Us41%
Market42%

We make Eichstätt a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1813 OCT 05:37
Our probability · eichstätt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Eichstätt win41%42%0
Draw27%27%0
Vilzing win32%32%0
Over 2.5 goals46%57%−10
Both teams to score51%60%−9
Over 1.5 goals72%78%−6
Over 3.5 goals25%36%−11
Eichstätt or draw68%68%0
Eichstätt clean sheet32%––
Vilzing clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%
0123450 8.2 9.3 5.4 2.1 1 10.8 12.4 7.2 2.9 2 7.4 8.4 4.9 3 3.4 3.9 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Eichstätt down, Vilzing across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsVIL 1–0 EIC · EIC 2–0 VIL · VIL 2–4 EIC · EIC 3–0 VIL

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

EICHSTÄTT

WWWDWL1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

VILZING

DDDDLD2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buchbach13+1428
2Memmingen13+827
3TSV 1860 München12+1121
4SpVgg Unterhaching12+521
5Eichstätt13−121
6Bayreuth13+719
7Illertissen12+519
8Wacker Burghausen13+718
9Vilzing12017
10Nürnberg II12+516
11Bayern München II12+216
12Eltersdorf12+116
13Augsburg II12−815
14FC Schweinfurt 0512−813
15Greuther Fürth II12−312
16Schwaben Augsburg13−1212
17Ansbach12−1610
18Aubstadt12−69
19Landsberg12−118

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.