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Buchbach v Wacker Burghausen

Buchbach

3–3Full time

Wacker Burghausen

Regionalliga - Bayern · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Buchbach 3–3 Wacker Burghausen BUCHBACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buchbach win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.921

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.852

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Buchbach win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Buchbach 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–22–35
1′KICK-OFF Buchbach v Wacker Burghausen
41′Wacker Burghausen score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–63
41′We said Buchbach at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–23–63
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Buchbach 0–1 Wacker Burghausen
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Buchbach win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Wacker Burghausen win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Buchbach win 37%)
43′We said Buchbach at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
45′HALF-TIME Buchbach 0–1 Wacker Burghausen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Buchbach win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
46′SECOND HALF Buchbach 0–1 Wacker Burghausen
52′Wacker Burghausen find the net on 52′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–89
52′We said Buchbach at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–89
52′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 0–2 · 3–9–89
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Buchbach 0–2 Wacker Burghausen
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Buchbach win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
72′A goal for Buchbach on 72′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Buchbach 1–2 Wacker Burghausen
85′Wacker Burghausen score on 84′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
85′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Buchbach 1–3 Wacker Burghausen
87′Buchbach find the net on 86′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–8–92
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Buchbach 2–3 Wacker Burghausen
88′5 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–7–92
88′Buchbach pull one back on 85′ through L. Kainz. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–92
94′A goal for Buchbach on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 2–96–2
94′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–96–2
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Buchbach 3–3 Wacker Burghausen
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Wacker Burghausen win 97%)
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' Buchbach
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Wacker Burghausen win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 96%)
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Wacker Burghausen win 98%)
FTFULL TIME Buchbach 3–3 Wacker Burghausen
FTBuchbach 3–3 Wacker Burghausen · Buchbach win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buchbach are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buchbach 43%, draw 22%, Wacker Burghausen 35%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Buchbach v Wacker BurghausenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Buchbach win43%

Draw22%

Wacker Burghausen win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buchbach

Wacker Burghausen

7Days since last match10

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 13 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
10	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · buchbach winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Buchbach a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Buchbach v Wacker Burghausen~~1.92 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 19~~2 v 10

~~The market · Buchbach win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Buchbach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buchbach win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Wacker Burghausen win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Both teams to score	69%	69%	0
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Buchbach or draw	65%	67%	−2
Buchbach clean sheet	19%	–	–
Wacker Burghausen clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.0 4.6 4.0 2.3 1 5.1 8.8 7.3 4.2 2 4.9 8.2 6.9 3.9 3 3.1 5.2 4.4 2.5 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buchbach down, Wacker Burghausen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,815 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buchbach at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wacker Burghausen away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Buchbach, 1.71 for Wacker Burghausen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WAC 0–0 BUC · BUC 3–1 WAC · WAC 2–2 BUC · BUC 1–1 WAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

BUCHBACH

WDLDLL1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–4

WACKER BURGHAUSEN

DWWLDD0–0 · 5–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	15	+8	30
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
7	Vilzing	14	+1	21
8	Augsburg II	14	−2	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
11	Nürnberg II	13	+6	19
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	14	+1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	14	−11	15
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	14	−11	14
16	Greuther Fürth II	14	−4	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	14	−7	10
19	Landsberg	14	−15	9