Home › Football › Regionalliga - Bayern › Buchbach v Augsburg II

Buchbach v Augsburg II

Buchbach

1–4Full time

Augsburg II

Regionalliga - Bayern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Buchbach 1–4 Augsburg II BUCHBACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buchbach win~~53%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.921

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Buchbach win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Buchbach was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–21–25
1′KICK-OFF Buchbach v Augsburg II
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Buchbach 0–1 Augsburg II
10′A goal for Augsburg II on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 29–23–48
10′L. Husic scores for Augsburg II on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 29–23–48
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Buchbach win: 53% at kick-off, 29% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Augsburg II win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Buchbach win 29%)
12′We said Buchbach at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–23–49
12′12′ and it is 0–2: Augsburg II have scored. 0–2 · 13–16–72
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Buchbach 0–2 Augsburg II
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Buchbach win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
14′We said Buchbach at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–2 · 12–16–72
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Buchbach 1–2 Augsburg II
21′Buchbach ahead on 19′ through A. Gashi. 1–2. 1–2 · 26–24–51
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Buchbach win: 53% at kick-off, 26% now
25′We said Buchbach at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–24–51
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Buchbach win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
39′We said Buchbach at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–26–55
45′HALF-TIME Buchbach 1–2 Augsburg II
46′SECOND HALF Buchbach 1–2 Augsburg II
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Buchbach win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
63′We said Buchbach at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Buchbach 1–3 Augsburg II
70′A goal for Augsburg II on 69′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
70′We said Buchbach at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Buchbach win: 53% at kick-off, 1% now
72′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Buchbach 1–4 Augsburg II
74′72′ and it is 1–4: D. Jonathans on the scoresheet for Augsburg II. 1–4 · 0–0–100
75′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Buchbach 1–4 Augsburg II
FTBuchbach 1–4 Augsburg II · Buchbach win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Buchbach win53%

Draw21%

Augsburg II win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Buchbach

Augsburg II

3Days since last match10

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	13	+14	28
13	Augsburg II	12	−8	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · buchbach winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

53% The market54%

Us53%

~~Market~~54%

We make Buchbach a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · buchbach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buchbach win	53%	54%	−1
Draw	21%	23%	−1
Augsburg II win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Buchbach or draw	74%	76%	−2
Buchbach clean sheet	26%	–	–
Augsburg II clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.5 4.6 3.2 1 6.8 9.2 6.2 2.9 2 6.9 9.2 6.2 2.9 3 4.7 6.2 4.2 4 2.4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buchbach down, Augsburg II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,798 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.70 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buchbach at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Augsburg II away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Buchbach, 1.37 for Augsburg II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUC 0–4 AUG · AUG 0–3 BUC · BUC 5–2 AUG · AUG 4–3 BUC

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

BUCHBACH

WWWDLD2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

AUGSBURG II

LLDLWL0–3 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 3–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	13	+14	28
2	Memmingen	13	+8	27
3	TSV 1860 München	12	+11	21
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	12	+5	21
5	Eichstätt	13	−1	21
6	Bayreuth	13	+7	19
7	Illertissen	12	+5	19
8	Wacker Burghausen	13	+7	18
9	Vilzing	12	0	17
10	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
11	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
12	Eltersdorf	12	+1	16
13	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	12	−8	13
15	Greuther Fürth II	12	−3	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	12	−16	10
18	Aubstadt	12	−6	9
19	Landsberg	12	−11	8