Bayreuth v Nürnberg II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BayreuthDrawNürnberg II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nürnberg II 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nürnberg II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayreuth 34%, draw 24%, Nürnberg II 42%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Bayreuth v Nürnberg IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bayreuth win34%

Draw24%

Nürnberg II win42%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayreuth

Nürnberg II

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
11	Nürnberg II	14	+6	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nürnberg ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Nürnberg II a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bayreuth v Nürnberg II~~1.45 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 20~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayreuth win	34%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Nürnberg II win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Bayreuth or draw	58%	–	–
Bayreuth clean sheet	20%	–	–
Nürnberg II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 7.4 6.2 3.4 1 6.5 10.8 8.7 4.8 2.0 2 4.8 7.6 6.2 3.4 3 2.3 3.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayreuth down, Nürnberg II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,822 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 141 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bayreuth at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nürnberg II away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Bayreuth, 1.65 for Nürnberg II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAY 0–0 NUR · NUR 2–0 BAY · BAY 1–1 NUR · NUR 1–3 BAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 19 Sept

BAYREUTH

LWWWLW0–2 · 4–2 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

NÜRNBERG II

LLWWWD0–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	16	+10	33
2	Buchbach	16	+7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	15	+10	28
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Augsburg II	15	−1	24
6	Illertissen	15	+8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
8	Vilzing	14	+1	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	+7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	+6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	−1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	−9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	−10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	−6	13
17	Ansbach	15	−17	12
18	Aubstadt	15	−7	11
19	Landsberg	15	−16	9