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Bayern München II v SpVgg Unterhaching

Bayern München II

1–1Full time

SpVgg Unterhaching

Regionalliga - Bayern · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Bayern München II 1–1 SpVgg Unterhaching SPVGG UNTERHACHING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said SpVgg Unterhaching win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.848

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SpVgg Unterhaching win at 44%.
26′N. Codjo-Evora scores for Bayern München II on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–24–16
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Bayern München II win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was SpVgg Unterhaching win 16%)
38′We said SpVgg Unterhaching at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 63–24–13
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' SpVgg Unterhaching win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 64–24–12
45′HALF-TIME Bayern München II 1–0 SpVgg Unterhaching
45′⚽ GOAL · 24' Bayern München II 1–0 SpVgg Unterhaching · N. Codjo-Evora
46′SECOND HALF Bayern München II 1–0 SpVgg Unterhaching
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bayern München II 1–1 SpVgg Unterhaching
FTBayern München II 1–1 SpVgg Unterhaching · SpVgg Unterhaching win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bayern München II win31%

Draw25%

SpVgg Unterhaching win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spvgg unterhaching winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make SpVgg Unterhaching a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spvgg unterhaching win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayern München II win	31%	32%	0
Draw	25%	25%	0
SpVgg Unterhaching win	44%	43%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	64%	−11
Both teams to score	55%	66%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	76%	83%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	31%	43%	−13
Bayern München II or draw	56%	57%	−1
Bayern München II clean sheet	22%	–	–
SpVgg Unterhaching clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 9.5 7.2 3.7 1 7.8 11.6 8.8 4.5 2 4.9 7.3 5.5 2.8 3 2.1 3.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayern München II down, SpVgg Unterhaching across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,789 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bayern München II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). SpVgg Unterhaching away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Bayern München II, 1.53 for SpVgg Unterhaching. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BAY 1–0 SPV · SPV 2–0 BAY · BAY 2–1 SPV · SPV 1–1 BAY

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

BAYERN MÜNCHEN II

WLDWWD3–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 1–1

SPVGG UNTERHACHING

WWWDDD3–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buchbach	12	+14	27
2	Memmingen	12	+7	24
3	Eichstätt	12	0	21
4	TSV 1860 München	11	+11	20
5	SpVgg Unterhaching	11	+5	20
6	Illertissen	11	+5	18
7	Wacker Burghausen	12	+7	17
8	Bayreuth	12	+4	16
9	Vilzing	11	0	16
10	Bayern München II	11	+2	15
11	Eltersdorf	11	+1	15
12	Augsburg II	12	−8	15
13	Nürnberg II	11	+4	13
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	11	−8	12
15	Schwaben Augsburg	12	−9	12
16	Greuther Fürth II	11	−3	11
17	Ansbach	11	−15	10
18	Aubstadt	11	−6	8
19	Landsberg	11	−11	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern

The table