Augsburg II v Illertissen prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Augsburg II 2–1 Illertissen ILLERTISSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Illertissen win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Illertissen win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Illertissen 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 31–24–45
1′KICK-OFF Augsburg II v Illertissen
33′Illertissen find the net on 33′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
33′We said Illertissen at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Augsburg II 0–1 Illertissen
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Illertissen win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
34′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–71
45′HALF-TIME Augsburg II 0–1 Illertissen
46′SECOND HALF Augsburg II 0–1 Illertissen
53′We said Illertissen at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Illertissen win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
57′A goal for Augsburg II on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–43–32
57′We said Illertissen at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 24–43–32
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Augsburg II 1–1 Illertissen
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Illertissen win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Illertissen win 75%)
61′Augsburg II score on 60′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 70–23–7
61′We said Illertissen at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–1 · 70–23–7
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Augsburg II 2–1 Illertissen
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Illertissen win: 45% at kick-off, 7% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Augsburg II win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 46%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Illertissen win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
70′We said Illertissen at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
FTFULL TIME Augsburg II 2–1 Illertissen
FTAugsburg II 2–1 Illertissen · Illertissen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Illertissen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Augsburg II 31%, draw 24%, Illertissen 45%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Augsburg II v IllertissenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Augsburg II win31%

Draw24%

Illertissen win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundBayern · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Augsburg II

Illertissen

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
8	Augsburg II	14	−2	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · illertissen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make Illertissen a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Augsburg II v Illertissen~~1.37 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 23~~8 v 5

~~The market · Illertissen win~~38% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Illertissen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Augsburg II win	31%	35%	−4
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Illertissen win	45%	38%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	59%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	37%	0
Augsburg II or draw	55%	62%	−7
Augsburg II clean sheet	19%	–	–
Illertissen clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.0 7.8 6.7 3.8 1 6.3 10.8 8.9 5.1 2.2 2 4.4 7.3 6.1 3.5 3 2.0 3.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Augsburg II down, Illertissen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,818 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Augsburg II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Illertissen away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Augsburg II, 1.70 for Illertissen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUG 0–1 ILL · ILL 0–3 AUG · ILL 0–0 AUG · AUG 0–0 ILL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

AUGSBURG II

DLWLWW0–0 · 2–5 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 3–0

ILLERTISSEN

WLDDDW3–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	16	+10	33
2	Buchbach	16	+7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	14	+9	25
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
7	Vilzing	14	+1	21
8	Augsburg II	14	−2	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	+7	20
11	Nürnberg II	13	+6	19
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	−1	18
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	−10	17
15	Schwaben Augsburg	14	−11	15
16	Greuther Fürth II	14	−4	13
17	Ansbach	14	−16	12
18	Aubstadt	14	−7	10
19	Landsberg	15	−16	9