Aubstadt v Vilzing prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AubstadtDrawVilzing

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Aubstadt 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Aubstadt just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aubstadt 37%, draw 26%, Vilzing 37%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Aubstadt v VilzingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Aubstadt win37%

Draw26%

Vilzing win37%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:30

RoundBayern · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aubstadt

Vilzing

6Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vilzing	14	+1	21
18	Aubstadt	15	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aubstadt winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Aubstadt a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aubstadt v Vilzing~~1.37 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 21~~18 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aubstadt win	37%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Vilzing win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Aubstadt or draw	63%	–	–
Aubstadt clean sheet	26%	–	–
Vilzing clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 8.8 6.1 2.8 1 8.8 12.1 8.1 3.7 2 6.1 8.1 5.5 2.5 3 2.8 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aubstadt down, Vilzing across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,822 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 141 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aubstadt at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vilzing away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Aubstadt, 1.36 for Vilzing. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~AUB 1–2 VIL · VIL 2–4 AUB · VIL 0–1 AUB · AUB 4–2 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

AUBSTADT

LLDDLD0–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

VILZING

DDLDWD1–1 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	16	+10	33
2	Buchbach	16	+7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	15	+10	28
4	TSV 1860 München	14	+10	24
5	Augsburg II	15	−1	24
6	Illertissen	15	+8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	+8	22
8	Vilzing	14	+1	21
9	Eichstätt	15	−4	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	+7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	+6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	+4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	−1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	−9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	−10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	−6	13
17	Ansbach	15	−17	12
18	Aubstadt	15	−7	11
19	Landsberg	15	−16	9