Ansbach v Greuther Fürth II prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Ansbach 1–1 Greuther Fürth II GREUTHER FÜRTH II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Greuther Fürth II win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.881

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Greuther Fürth II win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Greuther Fürth II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 36–24–41
1′KICK-OFF Ansbach v Greuther Fürth II
22′Greuther Fürth II find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
22′We published Greuther Fürth II at 41%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 14–20–66
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ansbach 0–1 Greuther Fürth II
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Greuther Fürth II win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 13–20–67
45′HALF-TIME Ansbach 0–1 Greuther Fürth II
46′We published Greuther Fürth II at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
46′SECOND HALF Ansbach 0–1 Greuther Fürth II
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Greuther Fürth II win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
51′A goal for Ansbach on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–39–32
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Ansbach 1–1 Greuther Fürth II
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Greuther Fürth II win: 41% at kick-off, 32% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Greuther Fürth II win 32%)
52′E. Weeger scores for Ansbach on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–39–32
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Greuther Fürth II win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
59′We said Greuther Fürth II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 27–44–29
68′We said Greuther Fürth II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–53–24
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Greuther Fürth II win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
75′We said Greuther Fürth II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
80′We said Greuther Fürth II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–72–14
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Greuther Fürth II win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
84′We said Greuther Fürth II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
91′We said Greuther Fürth II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Ansbach 1–1 Greuther Fürth II
FTAnsbach 1–1 Greuther Fürth II · Greuther Fürth II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Greuther Fürth II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ansbach 36%, draw 23%, Greuther Fürth II 41%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Ansbach v Greuther Fürth IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ansbach win36%

Draw23%

Greuther Fürth II win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ansbach

Greuther Fürth II

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Regionalliga - Bayern

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Greuther Fürth II	13	−4	12
17	Ansbach	13	−16	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · greuther fürth ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:41 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Greuther Fürth II a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ansbach v Greuther Fürth II~~1.53 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~17 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Greuther Fürth II win

Published at 42%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ansbach win	36%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Greuther Fürth II win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Ansbach or draw	59%	–	–
Ansbach clean sheet	20%	–	–
Greuther Fürth II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 6.9 5.7 3.1 1 6.4 10.4 8.4 4.7 2 4.9 7.9 6.4 3.5 3 2.5 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ansbach down, Greuther Fürth II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,807 Regionalliga - Bayern matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Bayern matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ansbach at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Greuther Fürth II away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Ansbach, 1.65 for Greuther Fürth II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ANS 3–1 GRE · GRE 2–2 ANS · ANS 0–0 GRE · GRE 1–1 ANS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Bayern this season · since 15 Sept

ANSBACH

DWWLLD1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1

GREUTHER FÜRTH II

DLWDDL1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Memmingen	14	+9	30
2	Buchbach	15	+7	28
3	TSV 1860 München	13	+12	24
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	13	+9	24
5	Illertissen	14	+9	23
6	Eichstätt	14	−2	21
7	Vilzing	13	+1	20
8	Wacker Burghausen	14	+7	19
9	Bayreuth	14	+6	19
10	Augsburg II	13	−5	18
11	Eltersdorf	13	+1	17
12	Nürnberg II	12	+5	16
13	Bayern München II	12	+2	16
14	FC Schweinfurt 05	13	−8	14
15	Greuther Fürth II	13	−4	12
16	Schwaben Augsburg	13	−12	12
17	Ansbach	13	−16	11
18	Aubstadt	13	−6	10
19	Landsberg	13	−15	8