Vreden v Erkenschwick prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VredenDrawErkenschwick

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vreden 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vreden are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vreden 51%, draw 22%, Erkenschwick 28%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Vreden v ErkenschwickBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Vreden win51%

Draw22%

Erkenschwick win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundWestfalen · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vreden

Erkenschwick

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vreden	11	+7	23
9	Erkenschwick	11	+4	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vreden winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Vreden a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vreden v Erkenschwick~~1.98 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 18~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vreden win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Erkenschwick win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Vreden or draw	72%	–	–
Vreden clean sheet	25%	–	–
Erkenschwick clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 4.8 3.4 1 6.7 9.5 6.5 3.1 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.4 5.9 4.1 4 2.2 3.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vreden down, Erkenschwick across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vreden at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Erkenschwick away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Vreden, 1.41 for Erkenschwick. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VRE 3–0 ERK · ERK 2–0 VRE · ERK 3–0 VRE · VRE 2–1 ERK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 13 Sept

VREDEN

LWWWWD1–6 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

ERKENSCHWICK

DWLWLL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	11	+8	23
2	Vreden	11	+7	23
3	Maaslingen	11	+7	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	11	+7	20
5	Lippstadt 08	12	+2	20
6	ASC Dortmund	11	+6	19
7	Sprockhovel	11	+9	18
8	Arminia II	11	+5	18
9	Erkenschwick	11	+4	18
10	Preußen Münster II	11	+2	15
11	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	−3	15
12	Verl II	11	+1	14
13	Hiltrup	11	−9	13
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	11	−7	12
15	TuS Hordel	11	−4	11
16	Victoria Clarholz	11	−4	8
17	Ennepetal	11	−12	8
18	Schermbeck	12	−19	2