Vreden v Ennepetal prediction · Oberliga - Westfalen

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Vreden 2–1 Ennepetal VREDEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vreden win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.213

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match pulse

FULL TIME

Match outcome probability (%)

VredenDrawEnnepetal

Our model, re-priced from the score and the clock at every minuteFull time

Full time · Vreden 2–1 Ennepetal

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vreden

Ennepetal

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vreden	9	+6	19
17	Ennepetal	9	−13	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vreden win62%

Draw18%

Ennepetal win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vreden winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Vreden a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vreden win	62%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Ennepetal win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Vreden or draw	81%	–	–
Vreden clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ennepetal clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.4 2.7 1 5.0 7.2 4.7 2.2 2 6.4 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 5.3 7.1 4.8 2.3 4 3.4 4.6 3.1 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vreden down, Ennepetal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,676 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vreden at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ennepetal away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.58 goals for Vreden, 1.38 for Ennepetal. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ENN 0–3 VRE · VRE 2–0 ENN · VRE 4–1 ENN · ENN 3–1 VRE

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen

VREDEN

WDLWWW2–0 · 4–4 · 1–6 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 4–1

ENNEPETAL

DLDDLL2–2 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	10	+8	22
2	Vreden	9	+6	19
3	Eintracht Rheine	9	+7	18
4	Erkenschwick	9	+6	18
5	Maaslingen	9	+4	16
6	Lippstadt 08	9	+2	16
7	Sprockhovel	9	+8	14
8	Verl II	9	+3	14
9	ASC Dortmund	9	+4	13
10	Arminia II	9	+2	12
11	Preußen Münster II	9	+2	12
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	9	−2	12
13	TuS Hordel	9	−3	10
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	−6	9
15	Victoria Clarholz	9	−1	8
16	Hiltrup	9	−12	7
17	Ennepetal	9	−13	5
18	Schermbeck	8	−15	1