TuS Hordel v Sprockhovel prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

TuS Hordel 1–1 Sprockhovel TUS HORDEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said TuS Hordel win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.921

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TuS Hordel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TuS Hordel 42%, draw 22%, Sprockhovel 36%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on TuS Hordel v SprockhovelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

TuS Hordel win42%

Draw22%

Sprockhovel win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundWestfalen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TuS Hordel

Sprockhovel

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sprockhovel	10	+9	17
14	TuS Hordel	10	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tus hordel winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make TuS Hordel a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TuS Hordel v Sprockhovel~~1.91 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~14 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TuS Hordel win	42%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Sprockhovel win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
TuS Hordel or draw	64%	–	–
TuS Hordel clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sprockhovel clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.0 4.5 4.0 2.4 1 4.9 8.7 7.3 4.3 2 4.7 7.9 6.8 4.0 3 3.0 5.1 4.3 2.6 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TuS Hordel down, Sprockhovel across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,687 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

TuS Hordel at home: 1.80 scored, 2.20 conceded a game (last 5). Sprockhovel away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for TuS Hordel, 1.76 for Sprockhovel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 4 Sept

TUS HORDEL

LDWDLL1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 0–1

SPROCKHOVEL

DLLWWW4–4 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	11	+8	23
2	Vreden	11	+7	23
3	Eintracht Rheine	11	+7	20
4	Maaslingen	10	+5	19
5	Erkenschwick	10	+5	18
6	Sprockhovel	10	+9	17
7	Lippstadt 08	11	+1	17
8	ASC Dortmund	10	+5	16
9	Arminia II	10	+3	15
10	Westfalia Kinderhaus	10	−1	15
11	Verl II	10	+2	14
12	Preußen Münster II	10	+1	12
13	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	10	−5	12
14	TuS Hordel	10	−4	10
15	Hiltrup	10	−11	10
16	Victoria Clarholz	10	−2	8
17	Ennepetal	10	−14	5
18	Schermbeck	10	−16	2