SpVgg Herne Horsthausen v TuS Hordel prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 1–0 TuS Hordel SPVGG HERNE HORSTHAUSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.463

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win45%

Draw21%

TuS Hordel win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen

TuS Hordel

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	TuS Hordel	9	−3	10
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	−6	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spvgg herne horsthausen winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

45% The market–

Us45%

We make SpVgg Herne Horsthausen a 45% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win	45%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
TuS Hordel win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen or draw	66%	–	–
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen clean sheet	17%	–	–
TuS Hordel clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.4 3.5 3.3 2.0 1 4.0 7.6 6.7 4.1 2 4.4 7.6 6.9 4.2 3 3.1 5.4 4.8 3.0 4 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SpVgg Herne Horsthausen down, TuS Hordel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,676 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen at home: 2.50 scored, 2.75 conceded a game (last 4). TuS Hordel away: 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen, 1.84 for TuS Hordel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen

SPVGG HERNE HORSTHAUSEN

LLWLWL0–2 · 0–2 · 4–3 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 3–5

TUS HORDEL

DLDWDL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	10	+8	22
2	Vreden	9	+6	19
3	Eintracht Rheine	9	+7	18
4	Erkenschwick	9	+6	18
5	Maaslingen	9	+4	16
6	Lippstadt 08	9	+2	16
7	Sprockhovel	9	+8	14
8	Verl II	9	+3	14
9	ASC Dortmund	9	+4	13
10	Arminia II	9	+2	12
11	Preußen Münster II	9	+2	12
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	9	−2	12
13	TuS Hordel	9	−3	10
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	−6	9
15	Victoria Clarholz	9	−1	8
16	Hiltrup	9	−12	7
17	Ennepetal	9	−13	5
18	Schermbeck	8	−15	1