SpVgg Herne Horsthausen v Gievenbeck prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SpVgg Herne HorsthausenDrawGievenbeck

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Gievenbeck 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gievenbeck are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 34%, draw 22%, Gievenbeck 45%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on SpVgg Herne Horsthausen v GievenbeckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win34%

Draw22%

Gievenbeck win45%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:15

RoundWestfalen · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen

Gievenbeck

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gievenbeck winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Gievenbeck a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SpVgg Herne Horsthausen v Gievenbeck~~1.69 – 1.97

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 23~~14 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win	34%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Gievenbeck win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen or draw	55%	–	–
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen clean sheet	15%	–	–
Gievenbeck clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.9 5.1 5.0 3.3 1 4.4 8.6 8.2 5.4 2.7 2 3.8 7.1 6.8 4.4 2.2 3 2.1 4.0 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SpVgg Herne Horsthausen down, Gievenbeck across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen at home: 2.20 scored, 2.20 conceded a game (last 5). Gievenbeck away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen, 1.97 for Gievenbeck. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 13 Sept

SPVGG HERNE HORSTHAUSEN

WLWLWL4–3 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 3–5 · 1–0 · 1–3

GIEVENBECK

WWLWWD4–2 · 2–0 · 0–6 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	11	+8	23
2	Vreden	11	+7	23
3	Maaslingen	11	+7	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	11	+7	20
5	Lippstadt 08	12	+2	20
6	ASC Dortmund	11	+6	19
7	Sprockhovel	11	+9	18
8	Arminia II	11	+5	18
9	Erkenschwick	11	+4	18
10	Preußen Münster II	11	+2	15
11	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	−3	15
12	Verl II	11	+1	14
13	Hiltrup	11	−9	13
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	11	−7	12
15	TuS Hordel	11	−4	11
16	Victoria Clarholz	11	−4	8
17	Ennepetal	11	−12	8
18	Schermbeck	12	−19	2